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Top stories

San Francisco’s Dream Keeper Leader Sheryl Davis Faces Criminal Probe Over Grants

San Francisco’s Dream Keeper Leader Sheryl Davis Faces Criminal Probe Over Grants

Authors

15

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Collective Impact

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.1%chance

21694598731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19277

4486

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

5%chance

12828388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7285

1681

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory?

Nov 24, 5:25 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

4.87%chance

252306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3082

771

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

How many seats will "Your Party" win at the next UK general election?

Aug 8, 7:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181395

OptionProbability

0

3

4-5

2

1

6-8

9-13

14-21

22-34

56+

35-55

60

8

8

6

5

3

2

2

2

2

1

Did HIV come from a laboratory?

Jan 5, 8:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.95%chance

151072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

164

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