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Prediction markets for Colonial

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.95%chance

538569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1782

561

Will there be a martian colony by 2050?

Dec 23, 10:35 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

38.62%chance

805971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

1384

Will the mostly self-sufficient Moon colony exist by 2100?

Jan 2, 10:06 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

43.96%chance

263950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

873

Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?

Jun 25, 2:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

78.74%chance

393949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1925

520

Will humans establish a permanent colony in Mars by 2040?

Jan 11, 12:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.02%chance

301264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

546

A Martian colony will exist before a Lunar one

Feb 6, 10:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.99%chance

211071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

942

Will we have at least ONE colony in space by 2050?

Dec 15, 9:40 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

69.95%chance

29902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

880

If Elon Musk establishes a Mars colony of at least 100 people, will it be more censorious than the US?

Feb 7, 6:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.95%chance

14409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

781

Will there be a human colony on or orbiting Jupiter or a Jovian moon before 2100?

Nov 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.8%chance

10247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

980

Discovery of Phoenician/Greek Colony in Subsaharan Africa before 2050?

Sep 20, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.43%chance

4182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

49

Will the UK pay reparations to Caribbean ex-colonies before 2028?

Feb 8, 7:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.35%chance

9161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

What will be true of the first human space colony? (Population > 1000)

Jan 7, 2:17 PMJan 14, 10:59 PM

471

OptionProbability

Research colony

Miner / worker colony

The rich

Military establishment

83

50

44

30

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