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Prediction markets for Colonial

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24%chance

538570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

562

Will there be a Jupiter colony before a Saturn colony by ...

Jan 11, 1:11 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

58054

OptionProbability

2026-04-01

2026-07-01

2026-10-01

2027-01-01

2027-04-01

2027-07-01

2027-10-01

2028-01-01

2028-04-01

2028-07-01

2028-10-01

2029-01-01

2030-01-01

2031-01-01

2035-01-01

2040-01-01

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

Will there be a martian colony by 2050?

Dec 23, 10:35 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

38.62%chance

805971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

1384

Will the mostly self-sufficient Moon colony exist by 2100?

Jan 2, 10:06 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

48.1%chance

274153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

788

Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?

Jun 25, 2:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

78.74%chance

393949

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1925

520

What kind of settlement will the first large human space colony be? (Population>1000)

Jan 12, 7:02 PMJan 19, 10:59 PM

532931

OptionProbability

Research

Combination (no majority)

Mining

Military

The Rich

Manufacturing

Embassy for established alien contact

Other

A gulag for commies that get purged by other commies

Leisure

Residential

Gambling

40

14

12

9

9

5

5

3

1

1

1

1

Will humans establish a permanent colony in Mars by 2040?

Jan 11, 12:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.02%chance

301264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

546

Will we have at least ONE colony in space by 2050?

Dec 15, 9:40 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

69.95%chance

29902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

880

If Elon Musk establishes a Mars colony of at least 100 people, will it be more censorious than the US?

Feb 7, 6:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.95%chance

14409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

781

Will there be a human colony on or orbiting Jupiter or a Jovian moon before 2100?

Nov 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.85%chance

11276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

963

Where will the first large human space colony be located? (population>1000)

Jan 7, 2:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1196

OptionProbability

Moon

Orbit around Earth

Other

Mars

52

29

12

8

What will be true of the first human space colony? (Population > 1000)

Jan 7, 2:17 PMJan 14, 10:59 PM

471

OptionProbability

Research colony

Miner / worker colony

The rich

Military establishment

83

50

44

30

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