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Prediction markets for Colonial

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.63%chance

528564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

556

Will there be a martian colony by 2050?

Dec 23, 10:35 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

38.62%chance

805971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

1384

Will the mostly self-sufficient Moon colony exist by 2100?

Jan 2, 10:06 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

43.96%chance

263950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

873

Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?

Jun 25, 2:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

78.04%chance

373708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1885

530

What kind of settlement will the first large human space colony be? (Population>1000)

Jan 12, 7:02 PMJan 19, 10:59 PM

522874

OptionProbability

Research

Combination (no majority)

Mining

Military

The Rich

Manufacturing

Embassy for established alien contact

Other

Gambling

A gulag for commies that get purged by other commies

Leisure

Residential

35

14

12

11

10

5

5

3

2

1

1

1

Will humans establish a permanent colony in Mars by 2040?

Jan 11, 12:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.02%chance

301264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

546

A Martian colony will exist before a Lunar one

Feb 6, 10:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.76%chance

201021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

970

Will we have at least ONE colony in space by 2050?

Dec 15, 9:40 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.63%chance

27777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1362

823

If Elon Musk establishes a Mars colony of at least 100 people, will it be more censorious than the US?

Feb 7, 6:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.95%chance

14409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

781

Will there be a human colony on or orbiting Jupiter or a Jovian moon before 2100?

Nov 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.8%chance

10247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

980

Will the UK pay reparations to Caribbean ex-colonies before 2028?

Feb 8, 7:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.35%chance

9161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

When will the first human colony be established in Alpha Centauri

Jun 5, 9:48 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

10129

OptionProbability

Other

2100

2075

2150

Not before 2200.

Never, humans go extinct before colonizing Alpha Centauri.

2050

53

15

10

6

5

5

4

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