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Prediction markets for Colony

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24%chance

538570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

562

Will there be a martian colony by 2050?

Dec 23, 10:35 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

38.62%chance

805971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

1384

Will the mostly self-sufficient Moon colony exist by 2100?

Jan 2, 10:06 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

48.1%chance

274153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

788

Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?

Jun 25, 2:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

79.59%chance

393999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1975

506

What kind of settlement will the first large human space colony be? (Population>1000)

Jan 12, 7:02 PMJan 19, 10:59 PM

532934

OptionProbability

Research

Combination (no majority)

Mining

The Rich

Military

Manufacturing

Embassy for established alien contact

Other

Gambling

A gulag for commies that get purged by other commies

Leisure

Residential

41

14

12

9

8

5

5

3

2

1

1

1

Will humans establish a permanent colony in Mars by 2040?

Jan 11, 12:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.84%chance

321317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

596

Will we have at least ONE colony in space by 2050?

Dec 15, 9:40 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

69.95%chance

29902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

880

What decade will humanity establish the first permanent colony on the Moon?

Sep 4, 1:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14655

OptionProbability

2040 - 2050

2030 - 2040

After 2070

2060 - 2070

2050 - 2060

Between now and 2030

44

34

8

6

5

3

If Elon Musk establishes a Mars colony of at least 100 people, will it be more censorious than the US?

Feb 7, 6:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.95%chance

14409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

781

Will there be a human colony on or orbiting Jupiter or a Jovian moon before 2100?

Nov 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.93%chance

13376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

968

Discovery of Phoenician/Greek Colony in Subsaharan Africa before 2050?

Sep 20, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.92%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

161

62

Where will the first large human space colony be located? (population>1000)

Jan 7, 2:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1196

OptionProbability

Moon

Orbit around Earth

Other

Mars

52

29

12

8

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