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Prediction markets for com
OptionVotes
14252
7083
This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
75%chance
294623056
OptionVotes
2934
2531
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60%chance
463382160
OptionVotes
3693
1551
Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?
May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM
13.74%chance
81251969
OptionVotes
151831
18979
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
86%chance
497197634
OptionVotes
5223
1087
Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?
Oct 26, 6:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
70.33%chance
19776614
OptionVotes
4812
2062
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
51%chance
20847953
OptionVotes
2654
983
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
56.82%chance
5726974
OptionVotes
114717
87171
Will .com still be the most popular top-level-domain at the beginning of 2035?
Dec 24, 9:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
82.43%chance
512054
OptionVotes
1315
885
Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?
Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
54.44%chance
131013
OptionVotes
1067
927
Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?
Mar 16, 6:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
22.94%chance
13712
OptionVotes
1158
924
Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2030?
Mar 16, 6:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15.76%chance
6181
OptionVotes
401
148