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Top stories

Heat Waves Spur Europe’s Rush to Air Conditioning

Heat Waves Spur Europe’s Rush to Air Conditioning

Authors

10

1 year ago

Prediction markets for com

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.6%chance

22594845505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19480

4415

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.86%chance

328673400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2756

2354

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89%chance

530230132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12091

5829

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144964

69643

Will Kamoa-Kakula Project 95 be fully commissioned by 2026-12-31?

Apr 7, 1:27 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

55.47%chance

1856131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10542

9542

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16293

6948

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

54.8%chance

22150925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

1100

Will .com still be the most popular top-level-domain at the beginning of 2035?

Dec 24, 9:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

83.67%chance

522145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1406

867

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.41%chance

181758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

851

If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into effect before 2029, will the Supreme Court block it?

Nov 5, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.07%chance

121035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10039

9943

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 6:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.15%chance

16849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

898

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2030?

Mar 16, 6:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

8203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

170

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