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Top stories

Heat Waves Spur Europe’s Rush to Air Conditioning

Heat Waves Spur Europe’s Rush to Air Conditioning

Authors

10

1 year ago

Prediction markets for com

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.26%chance

22244746812

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19617

4368

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

324668330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2715

2447

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.87%chance

563470419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3104

2046

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89%chance

526216209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12091

5829

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.33%chance

9558194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144253

69986

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16293

6948

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.66%chance

22150875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2500

1163

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

47.69%chance

2325206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10474

9548

Will .com still be the most popular top-level-domain at the beginning of 2035?

Dec 24, 9:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.43%chance

512054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1315

885

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.41%chance

171638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

851

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 6:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.94%chance

13712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

924

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2030?

Mar 16, 6:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.76%chance

6181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

401

148

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