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Prediction markets for ComEd Four

Will any of Trump’s trials end in a hung jury?

Mar 28, 1:41 AMDec 29, 7:59 AM

1.75%chance

299843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6339

85

The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026

Jul 30, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

827597

OptionProbability

Google Deepmind

OpenAI

Anthropic

X.ai

Other

Meta

32

29

24

10

5

1

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.56%chance

395464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1498

881

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46%chance

292531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

704

Will Alexander Zverev win a major before he retires?

Sep 4, 2:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.32%chance

71978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2264

442

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

251303

OptionProbability

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

28

25

19

15

13

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33%chance

291120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

948

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.76%chance

9564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

970

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will Grand Slam Track successfully host at least one meet in 2026?

Jul 25, 3:03 AMDec 31, 8:36 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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