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Prediction markets for ComEd Four

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Nov 17, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

7210550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will any of Trump’s trials end in a hung jury?

Mar 28, 1:41 AMDec 29, 7:59 AM

1.75%chance

299843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6339

85

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.5%chance

839342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8763

5599

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.9%chance

312681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

854

Will Alexander Zverev win a major before he retires?

Sep 4, 2:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.32%chance

71978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2264

442

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.53%chance

341502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

922

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

251303

OptionProbability

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

28

25

19

15

13

Will Grand Slam Track successfully host at least one meet in 2026?

Jul 25, 3:03 AMDec 31, 8:36 AM

22.09%chance

2900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1878

532

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.1%chance

10654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

954

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

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