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Prediction markets for ComEd Four

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.49%chance

14227715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27193

9686

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Nov 17, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.54%chance

7710878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

857

Will any of Trump’s trials end in a hung jury?

Mar 28, 1:41 AMDec 29, 7:59 AM

1.89%chance

2910052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6130

89

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?

Jan 1, 2:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.16%chance

115524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5404

80

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.27%chance

352998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

986

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.54%chance

422671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1861

746

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

261353

OptionProbability

#3 – “Stalemate”

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

34

25

17

13

11

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will Loyal report that LOY-002 met the STAY study's primary effectiveness endpoint by end of 2029?

Oct 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.98%chance

233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

1080

[Ṁ$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?

Oct 13, 12:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4

5

Above 5

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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