Commerce News

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

143189907

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030

Other

2024

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM

8516055

OptionProbability

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

President: Donald Trump

Vice President: JD Vance

100

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.64%chance

6312417

OptionVotes

YES

1089

882

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

1816

965

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Apr 19, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.91%chance

325208

OptionVotes

YES

4678

1453

Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

Nov 26, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

394191

OptionProbability

JD Vance (Vice President)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)

John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)

Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)

Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)

Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)

Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)

Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)

Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Apr 8, 2:30 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

69.76%chance

93714

OptionVotes

YES

7048

3974

Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.26%chance

42065

OptionVotes

YES

3484

702

Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?

Aug 18, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.93%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

125

Will SPS Commerce (SPSC) be taken private at any point on or before December 31st, 2026?

Feb 21, 3:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.49%chance

442

OptionVotes

YES

101

Who will be the next minister of the Republic of Cyprus to leave their post?

Nov 21, 10:45 AMFeb 5, 9:59 PM

OptionProbability

Constantinos Kombos (Foreign Affairs)

Makis Keravnos (Finance)

Konstantinos Ioannou (Interior)

Michalis Giorgallas (Defense)

Athina Michaelidou (Education, sport and youth)

Alexis Vafeades (Transport, communications and works)

Giorgos Papanastasiou (Energy, commerce and industry)

Petros Xenophontos (Agriculture, rural development and environment)

Yiannis Panayiotou (Labour and social insurance)

Anna Koukkides-Prokopiou (Justice and public order)

Popi Kanari (Health)

Does Amazon have an unfair monopoly on e-commerce?

Nov 7, 5:24 AM

200

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In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026?

Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?

Will SPS Commerce (SPSC) be taken private at any point on or before December 31st, 2026?

Who will be the next minister of the Republic of Cyprus to leave their post?

Does Amazon have an unfair monopoly on e-commerce?

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