Commerce News

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140175462

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM

7914784

OptionProbability

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

President: Donald Trump

Vice President: JD Vance

100

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.15%chance

6212367

OptionVotes

YES

1039

903

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

1816

965

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

299068

OptionVotes

YES

1091

457

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Apr 19, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.91%chance

325208

OptionVotes

YES

4678

1453

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Apr 8, 2:30 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

69.56%chance

73428

OptionVotes

YES

7011

3990

Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

Nov 26, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

312960

OptionProbability

JD Vance (Vice President)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)

Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)

Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)

Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)

Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)

Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)

Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)

Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

Will Commerce issue a final affirmative AD determination (A-821-840) by Jun 30, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMJul 1, 5:48 PM

76.72%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

1073

977

Will SPS Commerce (SPSC) be taken private at any point on or before December 31st, 2026?

Feb 21, 3:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.29%chance

229

OptionVotes

YES

110

Who will be the next minister of the Republic of Cyprus to leave their post?

Nov 21, 10:45 AMFeb 5, 9:59 PM

OptionProbability

Constantinos Kombos (Foreign Affairs)

Makis Keravnos (Finance)

Konstantinos Ioannou (Interior)

Michalis Giorgallas (Defense)

Athina Michaelidou (Education, sport and youth)

Alexis Vafeades (Transport, communications and works)

Giorgos Papanastasiou (Energy, commerce and industry)

Petros Xenophontos (Agriculture, rural development and environment)

Yiannis Panayiotou (Labour and social insurance)

Anna Koukkides-Prokopiou (Justice and public order)

Popi Kanari (Health)

Does Amazon have an unfair monopoly on e-commerce?

Nov 7, 5:24 AM

200

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Prediction markets for Commerce

Prediction markets for Commerce

Prediction markets for Commerce

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

Will Commerce issue a final affirmative AD determination (A-821-840) by Jun 30, 2026?

Will SPS Commerce (SPSC) be taken private at any point on or before December 31st, 2026?

Who will be the next minister of the Republic of Cyprus to leave their post?

Does Amazon have an unfair monopoly on e-commerce?

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