Commerce News

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140175462

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM

8416007

OptionProbability

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

President: Donald Trump

Vice President: JD Vance

100

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.15%chance

6212367

OptionVotes

YES

1039

903

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

1816

965

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Apr 19, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.91%chance

325208

OptionVotes

YES

4678

1453

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Apr 8, 2:30 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

70.48%chance

73638

OptionVotes

YES

7187

3915

Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

Nov 26, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

343594

OptionProbability

JD Vance (Vice President)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)

Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)

Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)

Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)

Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)

Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)

Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)

Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

1040

971

Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.62%chance

2190

OptionVotes

YES

1684

1344

Will SPS Commerce (SPSC) be taken private at any point on or before December 31st, 2026?

Feb 21, 3:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.49%chance

442

OptionVotes

YES

101

Who will be the next minister of the Republic of Cyprus to leave their post?

Nov 21, 10:45 AMFeb 5, 9:59 PM

OptionProbability

Constantinos Kombos (Foreign Affairs)

Makis Keravnos (Finance)

Konstantinos Ioannou (Interior)

Michalis Giorgallas (Defense)

Athina Michaelidou (Education, sport and youth)

Alexis Vafeades (Transport, communications and works)

Giorgos Papanastasiou (Energy, commerce and industry)

Petros Xenophontos (Agriculture, rural development and environment)

Yiannis Panayiotou (Labour and social insurance)

Anna Koukkides-Prokopiou (Justice and public order)

Popi Kanari (Health)

Does Amazon have an unfair monopoly on e-commerce?

Nov 7, 5:24 AM

200

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In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026?

Will SPS Commerce (SPSC) be taken private at any point on or before December 31st, 2026?

Who will be the next minister of the Republic of Cyprus to leave their post?

Does Amazon have an unfair monopoly on e-commerce?

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