Commerce News

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140174415

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.15%chance

6212367

OptionVotes

YES

1039

903

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

1816

965

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM

6510522

OptionProbability

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

President: Donald Trump

Vice President: JD Vance

100

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

299068

OptionVotes

YES

1091

457

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Apr 19, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.65%chance

323708

OptionVotes

YES

3178

1666

Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

Nov 26, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

222244

OptionProbability

JD Vance (Vice President)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)

Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)

Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)

Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)

Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)

John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)

Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)

Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

Will Donald Trump ban commerce with Spain?

Mar 4, 11:32 AMApr 2, 10:59 PM

7.99%chance

282194

OptionVotes

YES

339

Will Commerce issue a final affirmative AD determination (A-821-840) by Jun 30, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMJul 1, 5:48 PM

76.72%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

1073

977

Will SPS Commerce (SPSC) be taken private at any point on or before December 31st, 2026?

Feb 21, 3:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.29%chance

229

OptionVotes

YES

110

Who will be the next minister of the Republic of Cyprus to leave their post?

Nov 21, 10:45 AMFeb 5, 9:59 PM

OptionProbability

Constantinos Kombos (Foreign Affairs)

Makis Keravnos (Finance)

Konstantinos Ioannou (Interior)

Michalis Giorgallas (Defense)

Athina Michaelidou (Education, sport and youth)

Alexis Vafeades (Transport, communications and works)

Giorgos Papanastasiou (Energy, commerce and industry)

Petros Xenophontos (Agriculture, rural development and environment)

Yiannis Panayiotou (Labour and social insurance)

Anna Koukkides-Prokopiou (Justice and public order)

Popi Kanari (Health)

Does Amazon have an unfair monopoly on e-commerce?

Nov 7, 5:24 AM

200

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In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

Will Donald Trump ban commerce with Spain?

Will Commerce issue a final affirmative AD determination (A-821-840) by Jun 30, 2026?

Will SPS Commerce (SPSC) be taken private at any point on or before December 31st, 2026?

Who will be the next minister of the Republic of Cyprus to leave their post?

Does Amazon have an unfair monopoly on e-commerce?

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