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Commerce and State Departments News
Prediction markets for Commerce and State Departments
Prediction markets for Commerce and State Departments
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Jun 16, 6:56 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
23.08%
chance
20
11534
Option
Votes
YES
NO
18258
5477
Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before Americans?
Jun 18, 8:43 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
1.29%
chance
13
11190
Option
Votes
YES
NO
8735
114
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
35.28%
chance
22
7020
Option
Votes
YES
NO
13555
7388
Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?
Jun 14, 12:20 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
29.47%
chance
55
2713
Option
Votes
YES
NO
155
65
Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?
Jan 17, 5:34 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
8.64%
chance
29
1835
Option
Votes
YES
NO
325
31
Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?
Jun 22, 6:25 PM
Dec 31, 7:24 PM
59.41%
chance
25
741
Option
Votes
NO
YES
121
83
Will there be a new census before 2030?
Aug 7, 4:47 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
40%
chance
12
417
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1225
816
Will the US enact export controls on energy products in 2026?
Mar 13, 1:47 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
23.9%
chance
8
192
Option
Votes
YES
NO
142
83
Will UCAR/NCAR win its lawsuit against the Trump administration/US government?
Mar 17, 5:05 AM
Dec 31, 6:04 AM
69.23%
chance
1
50
Option
Votes
NO
YES
150
67
Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?
Jun 21, 10:17 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
40.34%
chance
6
35
Option
Votes
YES
NO
122
82
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