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Top stories

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

Authors

6

1 year ago

US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment

US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment

Authors

30

1 year ago

US Revokes Intel and Samsung China Waivers, Extends Some Tariff Exemptions

US Revokes Intel and Samsung China Waivers, Extends Some Tariff Exemptions

Authors

28

1 year ago

Intel Gets $5.7 Billion as U.S. Takes 10% Stake

Authors

14

1 year ago

US Goods Trade Deficit Jumps to $104 Billion on July Import Surge

Authors

5

1 year ago

US Orders Outpace Forecast Even as Consumer Confidence Slips

Authors

45

1 year ago

US Domestic Policy

US Commerce Voids $7.4 Billion Biden-Era Semiconductor Grant Deal With Natcast Under CHIPS Act, Impacting ASU Lab and Chip Supply Chain

Authors

14

1 year ago

US Domestic Policy

IRS Issues Sections 45Y and 48E Guidance for Wind and Solar Tax Credits Amid Commerce’s Section 232 Probe on Offshore Wind Costs

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Commerce Department

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.51%chance

257828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12918

7753

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

84871

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?

Aug 7, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.5%chance

71644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2532

395

Will the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?

Feb 16, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

4562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

485

5

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Will the US enact export controls on energy products in 2026?

Mar 13, 1:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.9%chance

8192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

83

Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?

Jul 17, 11:52 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

50%chance

588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?

Aug 18, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.93%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will UCAR/NCAR win its lawsuit against the Trump administration/US government?

Mar 17, 5:05 AMDec 31, 6:04 AM

69.23%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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