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Top stories

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

Markets Put 87% Odds on Fed September Rate Cut

Authors

6

10 months ago

US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment

US Economy Expands 3.3% in Second Quarter on Trade, Investment

Authors

30

10 months ago

US Revokes Intel and Samsung China Waivers, Extends Some Tariff Exemptions

US Revokes Intel and Samsung China Waivers, Extends Some Tariff Exemptions

Authors

28

10 months ago

Intel Gets $5.7 Billion as U.S. Takes 10% Stake

Authors

14

10 months ago

US Goods Trade Deficit Jumps to $104 Billion on July Import Surge

Authors

5

10 months ago

US Orders Outpace Forecast Even as Consumer Confidence Slips

Authors

45

10 months ago

US Domestic Policy

US Commerce Voids $7.4 Billion Biden-Era Semiconductor Grant Deal With Natcast Under CHIPS Act, Impacting ASU Lab and Chip Supply Chain

Authors

14

10 months ago

US Domestic Policy

IRS Issues Sections 45Y and 48E Guidance for Wind and Solar Tax Credits Amid Commerce’s Section 232 Probe on Offshore Wind Costs

Authors

6

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Commerce Department

Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before Americans?

Jun 18, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.29%chance

1311190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8735

114

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.27%chance

217018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13559

7386

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

175742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15357

6512

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

53421

OptionProbability

Gallium

Germanium

Neodymium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

11

11

10

9

8

8

8

6

6

6

6

6

5

Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?

Jun 14, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

441826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable?

Jun 13, 9:29 AMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.25%chance

221080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

32

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?

Aug 7, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.31%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

856

Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August

May 6, 3:24 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

8.58%chance

9246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

31

Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?

Jun 22, 6:25 PMDec 31, 7:24 PM

24.45%chance

13178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

57

Will UCAR/NCAR win its lawsuit against the Trump administration/US government?

Mar 17, 5:05 AMDec 31, 6:04 AM

69.23%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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