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Prediction markets for Commercial

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140174415

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

71

14

4

3

3

3

1

1

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.74%chance

5813755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

653

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.15%chance

6212367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

903

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

965

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

299068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035?

Jun 5, 1:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.38%chance

353985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

953

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Apr 19, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.65%chance

323708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3178

1666

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.79%chance

131939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

857

Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?

Sep 27, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.68%chance

231140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

734

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Jan 6, 2:38 AMJan 31, 4:59 AM

70.1%chance

10941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1531

653

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

971

Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

906

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