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Prediction markets for Commercial

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10595151

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

Other

2029

2030

2024

65

19

5

3

3

2

2

1

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36%chance

5312348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

710

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.78%chance

6112317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

927

Will New Glenn launch a commercial payload before Starship?

Jan 4, 1:22 AMJan 9, 4:59 PM

88.73%chance

5512123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2385

130

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

8610738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

879

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

298568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

Will a hybrid cultivated and plant-based meat product be commercially available in the US by 2025?

Mar 3, 1:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.89%chance

698353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2013

291

Will the United States legalize commercial supersonic flight over land before 2026?

Jul 2, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.3%chance

275423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3030

110

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Apr 19, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.64%chance

302708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2178

1904

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.83%chance

121672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

970

Will there be commercial flights to the Moon in 2032?

Apr 9, 1:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.85%chance

22746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

975

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

971

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