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Prediction markets for Commercial

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

143189907

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030

Other

2024

90

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.03%chance

6013835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

733

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.64%chance

6312417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

882

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

965

Will Boom Supersonic have their first commercial supersonic flight by the end of 2030?

Apr 19, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.91%chance

325208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4678

1453

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Apr 8, 2:30 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

69.76%chance

93714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7048

3974

Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.26%chance

42065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3484

702

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.79%chance

131939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

857

Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?

Sep 27, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.36%chance

241295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

583

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

Sep 13, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

41.17%chance

11687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

971

Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

906

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