Commitment of Traders News

Will the US send more patriot air defense systems to Ukraine before September 30, 2025?

Jun 26, 6:03 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

83.99%chance

202645

OptionVotes

YES

2291

437

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

Dec 14, 5:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92366

OptionProbability

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

100

UK Labour builds how many homes by July 4, 2029?

May 17, 11:09 PMJul 3, 11:59 PM

41917

Ace Bailey traded from Jazz before opening day?

Jun 27, 7:22 PMOct 21, 7:18 PM

5.92%chance

111368

OptionVotes

YES

399

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.52%chance

9548

OptionVotes

YES

1347

742

Pope and Patriarch consider themselves in full communion by when?

Jul 10, 8:19 AMJul 11, 8:05 AM

5348

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

79.01%chance

8169

OptionVotes

YES

194

Labour impose net migration cap below 150,000 before 2026?

Jul 21, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.89%chance

7163

OptionVotes

YES

184

OpenAI's for-profit pivot intentionally designed to provoke AGI governance debate before AGI?

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 6:47 PM

15.33%chance

4135

OptionVotes

YES

235

How bad is it to resolve a market as N/A?

Feb 3, 4:26 AM

640

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

310

Commitment of Traders News

Prediction markets for Commitment of Traders

Prediction markets for Commitment of Traders

Prediction markets for Commitment of Traders

Will the US send more patriot air defense systems to Ukraine before September 30, 2025?

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

UK Labour builds how many homes by July 4, 2029?

Ace Bailey traded from Jazz before opening day?

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

Pope and Patriarch consider themselves in full communion by when?

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Labour impose net migration cap below 150,000 before 2026?

OpenAI's for-profit pivot intentionally designed to provoke AGI governance debate before AGI?

How bad is it to resolve a market as N/A?

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

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