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Prediction markets for Commitment of Traders

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.89%chance

446446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

765

UK Labour builds how many homes by July 4, 2029?

May 17, 11:09 PMJul 3, 11:59 PM

82329

OptionProbability

1,000,000 - 1,249,999

750,000 - 999,999

1,250,000 - 1,499,999

Below 750,000

1,500,000 - 1,749,999

1,750,000 - 1,999,999

2,000,000 - 2,250,000

Above 2,250,000

28

23

16

15

6

4

4

4

Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?

Jun 23, 7:58 PMSep 23, 7:56 PM

2.8%chance

241076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

589

17

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

82.12%chance

19884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

47

Pope and Patriarch consider themselves in full communion by when?

Jul 10, 8:19 AMJul 11, 8:05 AM

7728

OptionProbability

Before 2400

Before 2200

Before 2100

Before 2060

Before 2040

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2026

69

67

62

46

45

36

4

0

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

90.1%chance

5210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

295

49

OpenAI's for-profit pivot intentionally designed to provoke AGI governance debate before AGI?

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 6:47 PM

10.31%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.07%chance

6136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

82

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

85

Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

Will any sovereign-AI deal ≥$10B be announced before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.5%chance

25

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

99

Will AMD MI300+ series ship ≥$10B in revenue in calendar year 2026?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

45.55%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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