Commodities News

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

118369933

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.07%chance

1517421

OptionVotes

YES

13650

7326

Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

66.6%chance

75182

OptionVotes

YES

14121

7082

Which cases brought by or maintained by the federal government will be dropped during the Trump presidency?

Dec 9, 2:25 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

82247

OptionProbability

KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC (ban on prediction markets for elections)

Ryan v. FTC (Non-compete ban case)

United States v. Sam Bankman-Fried

Clarke v. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (PredictIt Case)

U.S. and Plaintiff States v. Google LLC (Google antitrust case)

Federal Trade Commission, et al. v. Amazon.com, Inc. (Amazon antitrust case)

U.S and Plaintiff States v. Apple Inc. (Apple antitrust case)

United States v. Binance Holdings (charges against Binance for iolating several laws, including the Bank Secrecy Act, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and the Commodity Exchange Act)

Federal Trade Commission v. Microsoft Corp. and Activision Blizzard, Inc (Attempt to block Microsoft's merger/acquisition of Activision Blizzard)

United States v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Meta antitrust case)

TikTok Inc. v. Merrick Garland (TikTok Ban)

United States v. Skrmetti (ban on transgender health care for minors)

Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments, LLC (E-cigarette supreme court case)

100

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.86%chance

61214

OptionVotes

YES

10173

9830

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52.22%chance

41124

OptionVotes

YES

10045

9959

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

131015

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Space exploration

U.S. Real Estate

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Oil and fossil fuels

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

Will the Supreme Court decide that sports event contracts are protected under the Commodities Exchange Act? [1k subsidy]

Sep 4, 12:14 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

33.99%chance

11811

OptionVotes

YES

1394

718

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.04%chance

7350

OptionVotes

YES

1105

905

By 2029, will the U.S. UBI debate pivot toward a UBC/S (Universal Basic Commodities / Services) model?

Jun 9, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.76%chance

7253

OptionVotes

YES

128

South Africa's vanadium production exceeds 10,000 tonnes in 2027?

Nov 26, 5:41 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

4151

OptionVotes

YES

1110

901

How will the IRS rule regarding prediction market income?

May 3, 3:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

446

OptionProbability

Capital Gains

Commodity Trading (60% long term capital gains, 40% short term capital gains)

Gambling Income

Self employed income

Other

Commodities News

Prediction markets for Commodities

Prediction markets for Commodities

Prediction markets for Commodities

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Which cases brought by or maintained by the federal government will be dropped during the Trump presidency?

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Will the Supreme Court decide that sports event contracts are protected under the Commodities Exchange Act? [1k subsidy]

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

By 2029, will the U.S. UBI debate pivot toward a UBC/S (Universal Basic Commodities / Services) model?

South Africa's vanadium production exceeds 10,000 tonnes in 2027?

How will the IRS rule regarding prediction market income?

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