Commodities News

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

116369729

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Nov 26, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.01%chance

1317381

OptionVotes

YES

13630

7337

Which cases brought by or maintained by the federal government will be dropped during the Trump presidency?

Dec 9, 2:25 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

72197

OptionProbability

KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC (ban on prediction markets for elections)

Clarke v. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (PredictIt Case)

Ryan v. FTC (Non-compete ban case)

United States v. Sam Bankman-Fried

U.S. and Plaintiff States v. Google LLC (Google antitrust case)

Federal Trade Commission, et al. v. Amazon.com, Inc. (Amazon antitrust case)

U.S and Plaintiff States v. Apple Inc. (Apple antitrust case)

United States v. Binance Holdings (charges against Binance for iolating several laws, including the Bank Secrecy Act, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and the Commodity Exchange Act)

Federal Trade Commission v. Microsoft Corp. and Activision Blizzard, Inc (Attempt to block Microsoft's merger/acquisition of Activision Blizzard)

United States v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Meta antitrust case)

Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments, LLC (E-cigarette supreme court case)

TikTok Inc. v. Merrick Garland (TikTok Ban)

United States v. Skrmetti (ban on transgender health care for minors)

100

Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

54.04%chance

61894

OptionVotes

YES

10844

9222

Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026

Oct 24, 2:46 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

39.07%chance

91326

OptionVotes

YES

1249

801

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

131015

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Space exploration

U.S. Real Estate

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Oil and fossil fuels

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.79%chance

12961

OptionVotes

YES

1573

636

Global iron + steel slag output exceeds 595M tonnes by end-2026?

Nov 26, 5:13 AMApr 28, 10:59 PM

65.06%chance

5367

OptionVotes

YES

1364

733

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

45.27%chance

6255

OptionVotes

YES

1100

909

By 2029, will the U.S. UBI debate pivot toward a UBC/S (Universal Basic Commodities / Services) model?

Jun 9, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.76%chance

7253

OptionVotes

YES

128

South Africa's vanadium production exceeds 10,000 tonnes in 2027?

Nov 26, 5:41 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

55.22%chance

4151

OptionVotes

YES

1110

901

How will the IRS rule regarding prediction market income?

May 3, 3:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

446

OptionProbability

Capital Gains

Commodity Trading (60% long term capital gains, 40% short term capital gains)

Gambling Income

Self employed income

Other

Commodities News

Prediction markets for Commodities

Prediction markets for Commodities

Prediction markets for Commodities

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Will global iron + steel slag output exceed 600 million tonnes in 2030?

Which cases brought by or maintained by the federal government will be dropped during the Trump presidency?

Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Global iron + steel slag output exceeds 595M tonnes by end-2026?

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

By 2029, will the U.S. UBI debate pivot toward a UBC/S (Universal Basic Commodities / Services) model?

South Africa's vanadium production exceeds 10,000 tonnes in 2027?

How will the IRS rule regarding prediction market income?

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