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Common News

Will Brazil or Argentina officially approve a common currency before 2030?

Jan 23, 12:44 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

9.68%chance

5322184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3438

1019

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.84%chance

6213928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

787

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Jan 15, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.5%chance

8211429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2019

255

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.99%chance

1167407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1826

1079

4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.

Dec 28, 11:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.09%chance

326992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3933

255

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.63%chance

665239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

474

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

Dec 15, 5:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.68%chance

703957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

843

Will the UK have Proportional Representation of the House of Commons by 2030?

Jan 6, 9:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.39%chance

353423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

904

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 4:09 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

27.47%chance

42166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

Will crypto currency payments be a common thing for millions of people on any continent?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

50%chance

2492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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