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Common News

Will Brazil or Argentina officially approve a common currency before 2030?

Jan 23, 12:44 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

9.68%chance

5322184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3438

1019

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.03%chance

6013835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

733

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Jan 15, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.97%chance

8110813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

509

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.49%chance

1157357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1856

1029

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.

Dec 28, 11:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.8%chance

305065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

529

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

644627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

525

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

Dec 15, 5:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.68%chance

703957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

843

Will the UK have Proportional Representation of the House of Commons by 2030?

Jan 6, 9:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.79%chance

353403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

969

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 4:09 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

27.47%chance

42166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

Will crypto currency payments be a common thing for millions of people on any continent?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

50%chance

2492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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