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Prediction markets for Common Cause

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

20.68%chance

19838043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

817

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

Iran earthquake a nuclear test?

Jun 21, 7:35 AMSep 30, 7:30 AM

4.07%chance

234468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4854

206

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.66%chance

243458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1923

829

Will a Starship upper stage with Raptor 2 engines ever be caught successfully?

Jun 3, 8:30 PMJun 1, 8:19 PM

15.33%chance

122648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2350

426

Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?

Aug 4, 10:36 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

84.78%chance

212098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1770

759

Does any pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) cause Alzheimer's disease?

Feb 9, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.17%chance

261917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

916

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.72%chance

12240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

955

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