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Prediction markets for Commons

Will common shareholders recover any value from 23andMe's bankruptcy?

Mar 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.8%chance

1763384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17229

5804

Will Brazil or Argentina officially approve a common currency before 2030?

Jan 23, 12:44 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

9.85%chance

5222134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3388

1024

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36%chance

5312348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

710

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Jan 5, 4:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.22%chance

3310803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2591

618

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Jan 15, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.51%chance

699395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

606

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.34%chance

1086968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1899

962

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.28%chance

595993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2816

612

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.93%chance

583966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1411

675

Will the UK have Proportional Representation of the House of Commons by 2030?

Jan 6, 9:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.13%chance

272234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

987

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 4:09 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

27.49%chance

42165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

616

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

Will crypto currency payments be a common thing for millions of people on any continent?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

60.78%chance

1245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1245

803

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