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Top stories

Worcester Schools Reopen as New Chief Brian Allen Expands Bus Fleet

Worcester Schools Reopen as New Chief Brian Allen Expands Bus Fleet

Authors

12

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Commonwealth

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

Aug 10, 1:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.71%chance

2229746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3936

537

Will Commonwealth Fusion System's SPARC fusion reactor achieve "commercially relevant net energy from fusion" by Jan 1st, 2026?

Jan 25, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.45%chance

3715337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3303

634

Will any Commonwealth countries become republics during 2024 or 2025?

Nov 26, 2:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.16%chance

162085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2847

718

Which country will host the 2026 Commonwealth Games?

Mar 23, 12:46 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

61093

OptionProbability

UK

Australia

Malaysia

Canada

Games Not Held

Singapore

Other

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the 2026 Commonwealth Games go ahead?

Jul 20, 1:16 AMMar 16, 12:00 PM

97.03%chance

91029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1176

48

Will there still be at least three Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:08 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

95.51%chance

131007

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1795

922

Will Commonwealth Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.46%chance

10855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

926

104

What will be the next country to join the Commonwealth of Nations?

Feb 20, 1:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

9426

OptionProbability

Scotland

Other

Benin

Commonwealth dissolves / ceases to exist

USA

Ireland

Zimbabwe

Somaliland

South Sudan

Suriname

Burundi

Bahrain

Cambodia

Egypt

Libya

Nepal

Sudan

Yemen

Kuwait

Oman

44

44

8

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will any country successfully join the Commonwealth before 2030?

May 8, 11:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

8253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

158

Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.32%chance

11201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

981

Will there still be at least six Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:08 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

88.69%chance

6160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

330

125

Will any country leave the Commonwealth before 2030?

May 8, 11:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

79.83%chance

7126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

104

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