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Prediction markets for Communication Services

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

57.61%chance

552029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1261

970

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.22%chance

371941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

931

Fortune 500 company attributes >10% productivity gains to AI by Q2 2026?

Aug 8, 12:43 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

81.07%chance

181600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2069

483

Which month will Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully land on the Moon?

Jan 19, 3:09 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

121140

OptionProbability

Other

December 2026

October 2026

November 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

87

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

500 Patients Get Openwater Cancer Treatment by 2029

Jan 14, 2:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.81%chance

8975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

574

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14%chance

5430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

918

Will Spain bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?

Jun 30, 8:58 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

55.85%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

91

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