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Prediction markets for Communication Services

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.1%chance

7636038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

731

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.38%chance

223566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

1067

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.93%chance

351892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

954

500 Patients Get Openwater Cancer Treatment by 2029

Jan 14, 2:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.81%chance

8975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

574

Fortune 500 company attributes >10% productivity gains to AI by Q2 2026?

Aug 8, 12:43 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

61.57%chance

10631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

790

Will Iran bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 8:52 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

37.01%chance

7138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

88

80

Which month will Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully land on the Moon?

Jan 19, 3:09 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

4136

OptionProbability

July 2026

Other

May 2026

June 2026

April 2026

March 2026

39

25

13

9

7

6

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