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Top stories

US Foreign Policy

UK and Japan Announce Historic F-15 Deployment in Britain, First Joint Defense Statement, British Carrier Visit

Authors

6

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Communist China

Which company will create AGI first?

Dec 7, 7:13 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

734384

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Anthropic

US Government

xAI

people not employed by a company

Communist Party of China

Other

Meta

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

DeepSeek

Nvidia

Tesla

eleutherai

character.ai

microsoft

google brain

None of the above

Keen

39

14

11

10

10

5

5

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will China still be a communist country on the following dates

Apr 14, 10:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

192054

OptionProbability

by Jan 1, 2025

by Jan 1, 2026

by Jan 1, 2027

by Jan 1, 2028

by Jan 1, 2029

by Jan 1, 2030

by Jan 1, 2035

by Jan 1, 2040

100

96

94

90

82

81

75

63

Who will lead China after Xi Jinping leaves power?

May 3, 2:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10780

OptionProbability

Other

Ding Xuexiang

Wang Yang

Li Qiang

Cai Qi

He Lifeng

Wang Qishan

Tsai Ing-wen

73

11

5

4

4

2

1

1

Will Taiwan invade the PRC by 2050?

Aug 13, 8:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.21%chance

8613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

28

CCP loses control of a province or SAR before 2030

Oct 15, 12:03 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

10.33%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

925

Will Xi Jinping stop being the leader of China before China goes to war with Taiwan

Mar 28, 11:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.18%chance

7240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

187

Will Xi Jinping be either General Secretary or Chairman when he dies?

Nov 30, 3:20 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

54.79%chance

9232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

85

Will a Cold War like situation erupt between the US and China by 2034?

Feb 18, 1:27 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

79.06%chance

9211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

170

Will Meta censor its future open weights models according to Chinese-developed techniques?

May 6, 4:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.09%chance

14135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

1053

Will the CCP appoint a Party Secretary of Taiwan before 2030?

Jul 18, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.03%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will new KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping before 2028?

Oct 21, 3:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.8%chance

118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Will the KMT abandon the 1992 Consensus?

Jan 14, 4:12 AMJan 31, 3:59 PM

42.14%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

79

63

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