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Prediction markets for Community

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam?

Jul 6, 5:51 AMApr 15, 11:59 PM

20.08%chance

4811922

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1992

716

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.56%chance

543879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2874

387

LLM Psychosis Community declares war on the math establishment before 2027?

Dec 21, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.98%chance

233127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2382

420

Destiny community stock [permanent]

Feb 16, 7:51 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

54.67%chance

312293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

966

Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?

Nov 1, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.8%chance

372244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1915

747

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

Aug 17, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.62%chance

281791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

916

Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?

Oct 2, 4:29 PMOct 10, 3:59 AM

30.44%chance

451651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

733

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?

Dec 10, 3:14 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

41.81%chance

131376

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1092

887

Will Zvi Mowshowitz consider the Community movie worthy?

Oct 2, 4:38 PMOct 10, 3:59 AM

42.08%chance

23579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

894

Will "The Spectre haunting the "AI Safety" Community" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 22, 1:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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