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Prediction markets for Community

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?

Feb 21, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.6%chance

465204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1270

749

Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?

Apr 24, 6:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.97%chance

523090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2082

563

Destiny community stock [permanent]

Feb 16, 7:51 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

52.43%chance

282223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

973

Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?

Nov 1, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.11%chance

371994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1665

787

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

Aug 17, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.09%chance

281559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

862

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options?

Dec 10, 3:14 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

41.81%chance

131376

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1092

887

Will Manifold raise a community round in 2025?

Jan 6, 2:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.99%chance

131239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1940

515

Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?

Oct 2, 4:29 PMOct 10, 3:59 AM

42.72%chance

381135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

936

will I vibe with a community found through this market within a year?

May 11, 9:19 PMMay 12, 7:08 PM

34.68%chance

13578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1372

729

Will Zvi Mowshowitz consider the Community movie worthy?

Oct 2, 4:38 PMOct 10, 3:59 AM

42.38%chance

22572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

899

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