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Prediction markets for Community Change
OptionVotes
14218
7109
Will Trump still be president in June 2030 (given a 2025 presidency)?
Feb 12, 1:10 AMJun 1, 11:59 AM
5%chance
5415456
OptionVotes
1808
897
Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?
Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
68.47%chance
6813447
OptionVotes
1559
237
Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM
6.31%chance
906445
OptionVotes
1978
1525
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.01%chance
175392
OptionVotes
9916
2845
Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?
Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
20.95%chance
312584
OptionVotes
1101
926
OptionVotes
1008
992
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.67%chance
171570
OptionVotes
6171
4649
Will the percentage of philosophers identifying as religious in the next PhilPapers Survey decrease?
Apr 13, 3:53 AMMar 16, 10:59 AM
81.59%chance
431354
OptionVotes
1403
843
Will a human player defeat the SSBM AI Phillip in 2025?
Nov 20, 2:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
62.37%chance
5320
OptionVotes
1287
777
Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?
Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.74%chance
6284
OptionVotes
1258
795