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Prediction markets for Community Gaming

Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?

Jan 18, 9:10 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

84.77%chance

5610570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

936

Will "Whack-a-Mole is Not a Winnable Game" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 21, 4:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.23%chance

42222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

936

Will I still be running LW/EA board games nights weekly in April

Jan 30, 7:38 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM

69.18%chance

61692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1498

667

Will Fortnite or Roblox run in a web browser before Jan 1st 2027?

Jul 2, 7:20 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

31%chance

191440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1436

704

Will I join a Pen & Paper RPG in 2026?

Dec 31, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.42%chance

6435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

969

What's better?

Mar 26, 11:56 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7253

OptionProbability

Minecraft

Valorant

CS:2

CS 1.6

Rainbow Siege 6

Where Winds Meet

Forza Horizon 5/6

67

10

5

5

5

5

5

Will Austin LessWrong will ban someone in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.67%chance

5143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

Will "Video games are philosophy's playground" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 10:05 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

984

Will "Sonnet 4.5's eval gaming seriously undermines..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 1, 10:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Recontextualization Mitigates Specification G..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 15, 9:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "How to game the METR plot" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 20, 10:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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