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Prediction markets for Community Gaming

Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?

Jan 18, 9:10 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

85.1%chance

5710595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

931

Will "Whack-a-Mole is Not a Winnable Game" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 21, 4:31 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.23%chance

42222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

936

Will Fortnite or Roblox run in a web browser before Jan 1st 2027?

Jul 2, 7:20 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.86%chance

201445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

701

Will I join a Pen & Paper RPG in 2026?

Dec 31, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

8505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Will Austin LessWrong will ban someone in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.67%chance

5143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

Will "Video games are philosophy's playground" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 10:05 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

984

Will "Game Recognizes Game" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 15, 9:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Sonnet 4.5's eval gaming seriously undermines..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 1, 10:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Recontextualization Mitigates Specification G..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 15, 9:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "How to game the METR plot" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 20, 10:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

How long to beat GTA VI (Main + Extra) on HowLongToBeat, as of end of 2026?

Jun 24, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Under 30h

30h to under 40h

40h to under 50h

50h to under 60h

60h to under 70h

70h to under 80h

80h to under 90h

90h to under 100h

100h or more

N/A — no qualifying value (see rules)

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

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