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Prediction markets for Community Gaming

Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?

Jan 18, 9:10 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

84.11%chance

5510311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

945

Jasontheween Twitch Stock

Apr 11, 6:11 PM

143217

OptionProbability

YES

NO

487

290

Will Fortnite or Roblox run in a web browser before Jan 1st 2027?

Jul 2, 7:20 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

41.43%chance

16535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

874

Will I join a Pen & Paper RPG in 2026?

Dec 31, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.42%chance

6435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

969

Will I still be running LW/EA board games nights weekly in April

Jan 30, 7:38 PMMay 1, 11:59 PM

46.87%chance

4360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

939

Will "Video games are philosophy's playground" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 10:05 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

984

Will "The Game Board has been Flipped: Now is a goo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 4, 2:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.57%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

96

Will "Recontextualization Mitigates Specification G..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 15, 9:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Sonnet 4.5's eval gaming seriously undermines..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 1, 10:31 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "How to game the METR plot" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 20, 10:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

WB Games Stock

Apr 12, 1:05 AMApr 12, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

NO

YES

50

50

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