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Prediction markets for COMP

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.68%chance

301639757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2690

2506

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.47%chance

493409147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2991

2170

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.36%chance

506201728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5580

1032

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

171147638

OptionProbability

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

86

76

73

64

31

22

15

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

4072221

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Hugging Face

Anthropic

Thinking Machines Lab

17

12

11

8

4

4

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139076

72591

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.81%chance

1022168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16110

6207

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

76.93%chance

2019690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18263

5476

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

46

39

39

30

25

21

19

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.05%chance

296091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6239

2225

How many goals will Viktor Gyökeres score in official club competitions in the 2025/2026 season?

Jul 26, 5:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41+

20

20

20

20

20

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