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Prediction markets for COMP

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

323660230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2858

2143

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.67%chance

556467615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2818

2386

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.01%chance

523205143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10406

6058

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

180155907

OptionProbability

Before 2027-05-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-03-01

Before 2027-02-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-16

Before 2026-09-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-08-01

84

81

79

74

63

56

40

27

11

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.83%chance

15588390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

636

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.02%chance

9257160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143218

70492

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16293

6948

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.83%chance

1837402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22230

4498

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

50.13%chance

2224705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10025

9975

Will the SF to LA segment of the HSR be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

4017145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16703

3098

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.17%chance

1459535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6060

4388

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

128484

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

79

64

56

50

49

47

40

39

30

25

21

19

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