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Prediction markets for COMP

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.22%chance

316655684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2707

2466

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

547459947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2969

2196

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.1%chance

516202603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5507

1043

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

174148423

OptionProbability

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

67

57

47

37

27

17

7

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

4287203

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Hugging Face

Thinking Machines Lab

Anthropic

15

9

8

7

5

3

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143166

70518

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16293

6948

Mo Salah completes a transfer to San Diego FC before the end of 2026

Jan 6, 9:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.2%chance

1628213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21940

4558

Will author Steven Brust complete the Dragaera series by the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 5:48 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

76.93%chance

2119692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18263

5476

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

46

39

39

30

25

21

19

How many goals will Viktor Gyökeres score in official club competitions in the 2025/2026 season?

Jul 26, 5:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41+

20

20

20

20

20

How many pitchers will pitch multiple complete games in the 2026 MLB regular season?

Mar 23, 4:24 PMOct 4, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0+

1+

2+

3+

4+

5+

50

50

50

50

50

50

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