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Prediction markets for Companies House

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27%chance

1459501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3594

1876

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

392423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

733

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78%chance

421556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1542

776

Will Valve begin manufacturing RAM before May 1st, 2026

Mar 15, 6:02 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

3.93%chance

251366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

426

70

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

151045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

720

Will James Fishback win the Florida Republican Primary?

Mar 23, 12:27 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

12%chance

7973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

Which Company will be the first to sell 100.000 humanoid robots capable of household tasks?

Jan 6, 5:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17297

OptionProbability

Other

Tesla

X1

Figure

Unitree

UBTech

XPeng Robotics

Xiaomi

Mentee

Open AI

Galbot

Boston Dynamics

Samsung

Amazon

Agility Robotics/Agile Robots

LG

Honda

22

13

12

12

11

9

6

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

Ubisoft Entertainment Stock

Apr 12, 12:36 AMApr 12, 5:59 AM

390

OptionProbability

YES

NO

177

48

I make a coin-pusher game?

Dec 3, 9:43 PMApr 5, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

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