Competition Authority News

Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Jan 7, 4:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7418454

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.79%chance

207906

OptionVotes

YES

7404

135

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.54%chance

163220

OptionVotes

YES

3095

323

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

YES

1015

943

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Which college will get 3rd place on the 2026 Putnam exam?

May 3, 6:52 AMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

9240

OptionProbability

Stanford

Harvard

Carnegie Mellon

Caltech

Other

UChicago

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

1065

939

Which of these following things will happen in the ballon 2025/2026 d'or ranking

Jul 23, 8:37 PMOct 23, 10:59 PM

391

OptionProbability

At least 7 PSG players nominated

At least 6 defenders are nominated

2 french players in the top 5

The top 3 contains players from 3 different leagues

The top 10 contains at least 3 midfielders

100

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Competition Authority News

Prediction markets for Competition Authority

Prediction markets for Competition Authority

Prediction markets for Competition Authority

Who will control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterms?

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Which college will get 3rd place on the 2026 Putnam exam?

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Which of these following things will happen in the ballon 2025/2026 d'or ranking

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

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