Competition Department News

Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam?

Jul 6, 5:51 AMApr 15, 11:59 PM

16.16%chance

5315044

OptionVotes

YES

2329

642

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.08%chance

212832

OptionVotes

YES

2129

470

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

1100

977

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Will MAA release cutoff scores for USA(J)MO ever again?

Jul 6, 2:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

9145

OptionVotes

YES

128

US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Competition Department News

Prediction markets for Competition Department

Prediction markets for Competition Department

Prediction markets for Competition Department

Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam?

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Will MAA release cutoff scores for USA(J)MO ever again?

US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?

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