Complete Intelligence News

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.47%chance

193326344

OptionVotes

YES

124034

26950

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.51%chance

9858808

OptionVotes

YES

144853

69696

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.65%chance

909454

OptionVotes

YES

1388

1323

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Nov 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.88%chance

364548

OptionVotes

YES

2436

734

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

56.72%chance

673627

OptionVotes

YES

1003

981

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74.21%chance

653604

OptionVotes

YES

1758

1048

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

If an AI catastrophe occurs (1000+ linked deaths), it will be...

Jul 25, 9:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12924

OptionProbability

Because a human directed it to do so

an open source model

A proprietary model

A rogue AI agent acting autonomously

A cyber-physical system malfunction

Military system error

A combination of multiple models

Source unknown/untraceable

Financial system collapse

an openAI model

Biological agent synthesis/release

Due to poor resource allocation (i.e. the AI is responsible for, and fails to continue medicine/food/water stability to a place where human decisionmaking previously successfully did)

A Google model

an Anthropic model

Infrastructure/power grid failure

Accidental release of research code

A nation-state model

Automated social manipulation/misinformation

A Meta model

A Microsoft model

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

1217

848

Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?

Mar 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

27.09%chance

18573

OptionVotes

YES

1005

984

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

194

119

Complete Intelligence News

Prediction markets for Complete Intelligence

Prediction markets for Complete Intelligence

Prediction markets for Complete Intelligence

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

If an AI catastrophe occurs (1000+ linked deaths), it will be...

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

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