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Prediction markets for Complete Intelligence

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.52%chance

93161281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112042

17137

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.66%chance

7151513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138946

72659

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.06%chance

838678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

1181

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Nov 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.88%chance

364548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2436

734

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

57.3%chance

663617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

993

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.91%chance

643562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1741

1054

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?

Mar 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

26.83%chance

18563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

981

will ai really take over jobs someday

Feb 3, 12:52 AMFeb 10, 12:59 PM

95.19%chance

10443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

445

22

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

48.5%chance

866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

135

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