Completion and Production News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

10497

2690

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

YES

1159

926

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.07%chance

271296

OptionVotes

YES

1313

876

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

20936

OptionVotes

YES

1389

336

Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?

Nov 11, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.29%chance

8846

OptionVotes

YES

1766

566

Wagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)

Jan 12, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.89%chance

7769

OptionVotes

YES

1173

853

Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?

Mar 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

27.09%chance

18573

OptionVotes

YES

1005

984

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

1241

805

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM

56.9%chance

6341

OptionVotes

YES

1149

870

Will Rivian R2 earn IIHS Top Safety Pick+?

Apr 22, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

37.21%chance

4333

OptionVotes

YES

1299

770

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Completion and Production News

Prediction markets for Completion and Production

Prediction markets for Completion and Production

Prediction markets for Completion and Production

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?

Wagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)

Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Will Rivian R2 earn IIHS Top Safety Pick+?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

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