Completion and Production News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543852

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

10062

2804

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

72.96%chance

243510

OptionVotes

YES

2348

1009

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

YES

1009

979

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

24%chance

241210

OptionVotes

YES

1267

891

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

20936

OptionVotes

YES

1389

336

Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?

Mar 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

27.09%chance

18573

OptionVotes

YES

1005

984

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.52%chance

10472

OptionVotes

YES

1442

694

Wagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)

Jan 12, 7:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.63%chance

5463

OptionVotes

YES

1446

692

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

1241

805

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM

56.9%chance

6341

OptionVotes

YES

1149

870

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Completion and Production News

Prediction markets for Completion and Production

Prediction markets for Completion and Production

Prediction markets for Completion and Production

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Wagerup 2026 alumina production exceeds 2.5 Mt (2,500 kt)

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

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