Composables News

Dune: Part Three Prop Bets

Mar 25, 2:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6213015

OptionProbability

Title of the movie is "Dune: Part Three"

Announced in 2024

Music composed by Hans Zimmer

One or more characters who died in the first two films are cloned/appear in the film as clones (or gholas)

Paul Atreides sits on a throne

Rated PG-13

Denis Villeneuve credited as Producer, Director, and Writer

IMDB rating over 8.1 one week after release

Guild Navigator shown (not fully obscured by suit or tank)

Thinking machines directly referenced ("artificial intelligence", "machine in the likeness of a human mind", etc. counts as yes)

3 or more sand worms are on screen simultaneously

Released in 2026

Mentat does an eye-flick calculation

At least one birth depicted on screen

Runtime over 2h 45m

At least three characters who died in the first two movies are depicted on-screen (can be flashback, spice dream, etc)

5 or more sand worms are on screen simultaneously

A named character will be cast as a different gender to their book gender (other than ones who appeared in previous movies eg Liet Kynes)

Runtime between 2h 30m and 2h 45m inclusive

Alia depicted on-screen as a toddler (not infant and obviously <6yo)

Hitler mentioned by name

Runtime under 2h 30m

The word "jihad" (not "holy war" or similar) is used

"Butlerian jihad" mentioned by name

”Messiah” is in the movie title

An actor for a named character is replaced by a different actor

Not released by EoY 2030

100

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.94%chance

338060

OptionVotes

YES

6595

1779

Will the United States of America be composed of exactly 50 states by 2030?

Nov 21, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.98%chance

392902

OptionVotes

YES

1514

867

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

May 19, 3:40 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

11.83%chance

331249

OptionVotes

YES

1706

838

If a ToE is found before 2040, how many dimentions will it be composed of ?

Feb 5, 11:58 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17937

OptionProbability

[ 3 ; 6 [

[ 9 ; 12 [

∞

[ 6 ; 9 [

[ 12 ; 15 [

[ 1 ; 3 [

[ 15 ; 18 [

[ 21 ; +∞ [

[ 18 ; 21 [

xAI (props)

Mar 7, 11:36 AMMar 7, 11:36 AM

9888

OptionProbability

Grok-5 publicly released by August 1, 2026

Grok-5 utilizes a multi-agent architecture composed of several LLMs like Grok-4.2

Grok Imagine supports 1080p 30s videos by September 30, 2026

xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents emulating a digital company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026

Colossus supercluster hits 1.5GW by May 1, 2026

xAI publicly deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents emulating digital humans) by December 31, 2026

xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard on or before June 1, 2026

Is the Higgs composite?

Jun 8, 7:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

20.5%chance

23823

OptionVotes

YES

1228

896

2x2: Will Labour get majority, will fossil fuels (without imports) compose >33% of UK energy gen next Parliament?

Dec 20, 3:47 PMDec 27, 11:59 PM

3552

OptionProbability

Labour Majority, fossil fuels <=22%

Labour Majority, fossil fuels >22%

Not Labour Majority, fossil fuels >22%

Not Labour Majority, fossil fuels <=22%

Will any song on Billboard Hot 100 before 2027 be composed by AI?

Jan 8, 3:28 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

69%chance

17519

OptionVotes

YES

235

130

Will BRICS currency/ies compose at least 30% of reserves and trade by 2030

May 3, 6:50 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

64.95%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

122

🎱🤖 AnswerBot 3000: Ask me anything and I'll answer how I think it should be answered.

Jan 15, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

211

OptionProbability

Do you want to answer No to this question?

Can I compose music for one of your future projects?

Example: Have you ever gone skydiving?

Example: Is there a god?

Can blob fish dance ballet under diagonally fried cucumbers made of dust storms?

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Dune: Part Three Prop Bets

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Will the United States of America be composed of exactly 50 states by 2030?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

If a ToE is found before 2040, how many dimentions will it be composed of ?

xAI (props)

Is the Higgs composite?

2x2: Will Labour get majority, will fossil fuels (without imports) compose >33% of UK energy gen next Parliament?

Will any song on Billboard Hot 100 before 2027 be composed by AI?

Will BRICS currency/ies compose at least 30% of reserves and trade by 2030

🎱🤖 AnswerBot 3000: Ask me anything and I'll answer how I think it should be answered.

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