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Prediction markets for Compute

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.5%chance

455372687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3723

1531

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Jun 2, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

9434878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3129

809

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.39%chance

24534485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2862

1836

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.58%chance

7132050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25925

4669

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Jan 5, 7:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.27%chance

8012558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3341

21

When will Quantum computing become viable?

Dec 4, 6:14 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

23.05%chance

8012475

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2467

937

Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

Sep 11, 2:06 PMSep 12, 3:59 AM

67%chance

407977

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

702

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.96%chance

365319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5032

4011

Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?

Jan 21, 12:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.51%chance

493610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

872

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

222962

Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?

Nov 21, 11:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

81.28%chance

381444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

940

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

60.73%chance

18676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1740

1045

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