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Prediction markets for Compute Labs

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Jan 5, 7:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.2%chance

8112563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3364

20

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

4512461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

924

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4744

1120

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.24%chance

461473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

817

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.17%chance

3600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

In which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?

Jan 7, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12578

OptionProbability

Not demonstrated by 31 Dec 2035

2031–2032

2029–2030

2033 or later

2028 or earlier

32

22

16

16

15

Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.01%chance

10577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

906

247

Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first

Nov 28, 11:21 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

6253

OptionProbability

No Company by 2040

Google

QuEra

Other

Microsoft

Quantinuum

Amazon

IBM

Rigetti

PsiQuantum

HRL

15

14

10

10

9

9

8

6

6

6

6

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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