Compute Labs News

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.06%chance

5716388

OptionVotes

YES

1784

561

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

Jan 5, 7:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.2%chance

8112563

OptionVotes

YES

3364

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

YES

3137

320

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.69%chance

216349

OptionVotes

YES

5359

1039

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

1365

735

What will happen in Deltarune Chapter 6?

Jun 30, 6:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

201677

OptionProbability

A Weird Route save file can't load at all (not even a blank screen)

It is possible to craft the TwistedSwd

Noelle enters Castle Town

An "aborted Weird Route" has significant changes (not just a few lines of dialogue)

Susie learns that Kris and the SOUL are two different entities

Susie learns that Kris has been working with the Knight

The official soundtrack has 40+ songs

A Dark Fountain is opened in Holiday Manor

Rudy dies

Dark Fountains are opened in multiple distinct locations

Berdly appears in a Dark World

Noelle opens a Dark Fountain

New Soul Mode in a Boss Fight (Blue or Aqua)

FRIEND becomes plot-relevant

The Roaring happens

A Dark Fountain is opened in the hospital

The vessel appears or is mentioned

Asriel appears

A battle against Seam

Dess is confirmed to be the Roaring Knight

Papyrus appears

A Dark Fountain is re-opened in a previous location (e.g. the computer lab, Kris's house, etc.)

Susie and Kris enter the bunker

The entire town becomes a Dark World

Light world combat

W.D. Gaster appears

Anyone other than Dess is confirmed to be the Roaring Knight

A battle against FRIEND

The eggs hatch

Only dark world visited is Castle Town

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Jan 5, 7:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.24%chance

461473

OptionVotes

YES

1080

817

Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first

Nov 28, 11:21 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

71285

OptionProbability

IBM

No Company by 2040

Rigetti

PsiQuantum

Google

HRL

Amazon

Microsoft

Quantinuum

QuEra

Other

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.15%chance

81153

OptionVotes

YES

1303

770

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.57%chance

4900

OptionVotes

YES

1752

571

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

Sep 13, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

41.17%chance

11687

OptionVotes

YES

1195

837

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Compute Labs News

Prediction markets for Compute Labs

Prediction markets for Compute Labs

Prediction markets for Compute Labs

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

What will happen in Deltarune Chapter 6?

Will the bureau of labor say computer programmers' (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased between 2023 and 2030?

Which Company or Lab will release a Quantum Computer that can break RSA-2048 first

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

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