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Top stories

Rubio Says USAID Enters Formal Shutdown With Vought Leading Wind-Down

US Foreign Policy

US Domestic Policy

Rubio Says USAID Enters Formal Shutdown With Vought Leading Wind-Down

Authors

6

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Congressional Democrats

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

783394684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6715

3343

Virginia redistricting: Will the Charlottesville district be blue?

Dec 21, 12:31 AMNov 4, 12:19 AM

4.42%chance

3873756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30807

554

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Who will win the Democratic primary in Colorado's 8th congressional district?

Jun 30, 9:02 PMJun 30, 8:59 PM

117589

OptionProbability

Manny Rutinel

Shannon Bird

Dave Young

Amie Baca Oehlert

Yadira Caraveo

Other

92

7

0

0

0

0

Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.69%chance

113665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

669

Will a democrat win the CA 1st congressional district special election to replace Doug LaMalfa?

Jan 6, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.85%chance

53193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1948

513

Who wins Missouri's 1st congressional district Democratic primary in 2026?

Sep 29, 6:45 AMNov 2, 10:59 PM

122252

OptionProbability

Wesley Bell

Cori Bush

Other

57

43

0

Will America remain a two-party system until February 2040?

Dec 11, 3:04 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

71.87%chance

171481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

937

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?

Nov 19, 1:48 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

19390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

783

Will America remain a two-party system until 2050?

Dec 29, 6:53 PMJan 6, 4:59 AM

68.47%chance

15375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

877

Which Iowa congressional districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?

Feb 18, 7:23 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

11303

OptionProbability

Iowa's 1st Congressional District

Iowa's 3rd Congressional District

Iowa's 2nd Congressional District

Iowa's 4th Congressional District

69

64

50

5

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