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Top stories

Rubio Says USAID Enters Formal Shutdown With Vought Leading Wind-Down

US Foreign Policy

US Domestic Policy

Rubio Says USAID Enters Formal Shutdown With Vought Leading Wind-Down

Authors

6

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Congressional Democrats

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.4%chance

784395091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6391

3455

Virginia redistricting: Will the Charlottesville district be blue?

Dec 21, 12:31 AMNov 4, 12:19 AM

3.61%chance

4281630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32683

476

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected to the House in 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.63%chance

123814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

817

Will a democrat win the CA 1st congressional district special election to replace Doug LaMalfa?

Jan 6, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.85%chance

53193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1948

513

Will America remain a two-party system until February 2040?

Dec 11, 3:04 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

71.87%chance

171481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

937

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?

Nov 19, 1:48 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

19390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

783

Who will win the Democratic primary in Connecticut's 1st congressional district?

Jul 16, 6:36 PMAug 11, 8:00 PM

6379

OptionProbability

Luke Bronin

John Larson

Jillian Gilchrest

Other

70

22

7

1

Will America remain a two-party system until 2050?

Dec 29, 6:53 PMJan 6, 4:59 AM

68.47%chance

15375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

877

Which Iowa congressional districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?

Feb 18, 7:23 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

11357

OptionProbability

Iowa's 3rd Congressional District

Iowa's 1st Congressional District

Iowa's 2nd Congressional District

Iowa's 4th Congressional District

65

64

47

4

Who will win the Democratic primary in Hawaii's 1st congressional district?

Jul 16, 6:37 PMAug 8, 11:59 PM

9286

OptionProbability

Jarrett Keohokalole

Other

Ed Case

70

16

14

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