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Top stories

Rubio Says USAID Enters Formal Shutdown With Vought Leading Wind-Down

US Foreign Policy

US Domestic Policy

Rubio Says USAID Enters Formal Shutdown With Vought Leading Wind-Down

Authors

6

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Congressional Democrats

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

34.48%chance

680288322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5074

4023

Will Congress confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2025?

May 6, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.68%chance

1913020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7683

133

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

52.48%chance

8912775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.03%chance

175141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4347

230

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.57%chance

173990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4117

243

Scott Wiener wins the 2026 House election?

Oct 22, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.71%chance

103987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

874

Who will win the Democratic primary in Colorado's 8th congressional district?

Jun 30, 9:02 PMJun 30, 8:59 PM

73468

OptionProbability

Manny Rutinel

Shannon Bird

Amie Baca Oehlert

Dave Young

Other

Yadira Caraveo

54

35

5

3

2

1

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

84.96%chance

182044

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2377

421

Will Saikat Chakrabarti be elected to Congress in 2026?

Aug 27, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.44%chance

91918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2176

460

Will America remain a two-party system until February 2040?

Dec 11, 3:04 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

71.87%chance

171481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

937

Will America remain a two-party system until 2050?

Dec 29, 6:53 PMJan 6, 4:59 AM

68.47%chance

15375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

877

Who wins Missouri's 1st congressional district Democratic primary in 2026?

Sep 29, 6:45 AMNov 2, 10:59 PM

3151

OptionProbability

Cori Bush

Wesley Bell

Other

58

39

3

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