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Top stories

Labour at 20% Records Lowest Poll Since 2019 as Reform UK Leads at 28% and Conservatives Fall to 17% in August YouGov Survey

Labour at 20% Records Lowest Poll Since 2019 as Reform UK Leads at 28% and Conservatives Fall to 17% in August YouGov Survey

Authors

7

1 year ago

Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch

Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch

Authors

7

1 year ago

Angela Rayner Faces Criticism Over £800,000 Third Home Purchase and £40,000 Stamp Duty Reduction

Angela Rayner Faces Criticism Over £800,000 Third Home Purchase and £40,000 Stamp Duty Reduction

Authors

7

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Conservative Party

Who will become the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party after Kemi Badenoch?

Nov 4, 12:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

328078

OptionProbability

Other

James Cleverly

Tom Tugendhat

Boris Johnson

Rishi Sunak

Robert Jenrick

Suella Braverman

48

23

14

6

4

3

1

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

25.42%chance

287870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3461

1125

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

10.26%chance

217537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2958

338

Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?

Jul 10, 3:40 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

68.69%chance

346103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2316

858

Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

68.65%chance

315872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

547

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Jun 16, 7:07 PMJan 30, 8:59 PM

325572

OptionProbability

1 Jan 2032 or later

Between 1 Jan 2028 and 31 Dec 2029

Between 1 Jan 2030 and 31 Dec 2031

Between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2027

Before Dec 31 2025

39

20

17

6

1

Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.5%chance

272381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1733

884

Will an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?

Dec 17, 10:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

95.3%chance

141208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

592

33

Will the Conservative Party still exist in 2044?

Jan 18, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.92%chance

171044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

933

Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2027?

May 3, 6:34 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

70%chance

12803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Who will succeed Pierre Poilievre as the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?

Mar 25, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13558

OptionProbability

Other

Doug Ford

Jason Kenney

Peter MacKay

Jean Charest

Rona Ambrose

Scott Moe

Kevin O'Leary

Danielle Smith

Maxime Bernier

Stephen Harper

31

24

13

13

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

How many members will the UK Conservative Party have at the start of 2029?

May 2, 6:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2295

OptionProbability

Above 50,000

Above 100,000

Above 150,000

Above 200,000

Above 250,000

Above 300,000

Above 350,000

Above 400,000

Above 600,000

80

66

50

24

20

17

15

8

6

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