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Top stories

Labour at 20% Records Lowest Poll Since 2019 as Reform UK Leads at 28% and Conservatives Fall to 17% in August YouGov Survey

Labour at 20% Records Lowest Poll Since 2019 as Reform UK Leads at 28% and Conservatives Fall to 17% in August YouGov Survey

Authors

7

3 months ago

Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch

Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch

Authors

7

4 months ago

Angela Rayner Faces Criticism Over £800,000 Third Home Purchase and £40,000 Stamp Duty Reduction

Angela Rayner Faces Criticism Over £800,000 Third Home Purchase and £40,000 Stamp Duty Reduction

Authors

7

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Conservative Party

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

18.03%chance

205817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2132

469

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

55.4%chance

235695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2181

1841

Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?

Jul 10, 3:40 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

23.83%chance

323418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1788

559

Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.16%chance

172596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1990

503

Will the Liberal Democrats consistently outpoll the Conservative Party in 2025?

Jun 18, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.27%chance

102491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2798

77

Who will lead the Conservative Party into the next UK general election?

Oct 14, 5:55 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

232028

OptionProbability

Other

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

James Cleverly

Nigel Farage

34

30

21

14

1

Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party on May 1st 2026?

May 3, 6:29 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

65.52%chance

211989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

9.25%chance

231486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

912

Will the Conservative Party still exist in 2044?

Jan 18, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.92%chance

171044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

933

Who will succeed Pierre Poilievre as the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?

Mar 25, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12553

OptionProbability

Other

Doug Ford

Jason Kenney

Peter MacKay

Jean Charest

Rona Ambrose

Scott Moe

Kevin O'Leary

Danielle Smith

Maxime Bernier

Stephen Harper

34

26

14

8

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

Will an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?

Dec 17, 10:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.14%chance

10429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

303

60

How many seats will be won by EKRE (Conservative People's Party of Estonia) in the next Estonian parliamentary election?

Mar 31, 9:11 AMMar 8, 11:59 PM

5100

OptionProbability

More than 15

More than 18

More than 21

More than 24

59

50

33

12

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