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Top stories

Labour at 20% Records Lowest Poll Since 2019 as Reform UK Leads at 28% and Conservatives Fall to 17% in August YouGov Survey

Labour at 20% Records Lowest Poll Since 2019 as Reform UK Leads at 28% and Conservatives Fall to 17% in August YouGov Survey

Authors

7

7 months ago

Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch

Jeremy Balfour Quits Tory as Reform Support Hits 31%, Corbyn’s Party Gains 28% Labour Members and Plans Scottish Branch

Authors

7

7 months ago

Angela Rayner Faces Criticism Over £800,000 Third Home Purchase and £40,000 Stamp Duty Reduction

Angela Rayner Faces Criticism Over £800,000 Third Home Purchase and £40,000 Stamp Duty Reduction

Authors

7

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Conservative Party

Who will become the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party after Kemi Badenoch?

Nov 4, 12:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

328078

OptionProbability

Other

James Cleverly

Tom Tugendhat

Boris Johnson

Rishi Sunak

Robert Jenrick

Suella Braverman

48

23

14

6

4

3

1

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

52.71%chance

245995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

1941

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Jun 16, 7:07 PMJan 30, 8:59 PM

305456

OptionProbability

1 Jan 2032 or later

Between 1 Jan 2028 and 31 Dec 2029

Between 1 Jan 2030 and 31 Dec 2031

Between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2027

Before Dec 31 2025

39

31

17

6

1

Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

42.49%chance

274462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

861

Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?

Jul 10, 3:40 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

33.49%chance

324282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1933

1197

Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.79%chance

251736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1672

889

Will the Conservative Party still exist in 2044?

Jan 18, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.92%chance

171044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

933

Will an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?

Dec 17, 10:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

94.68%chance

11679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

553

35

In 2040, the UK Conservative and Unionist Party has/is … [complete the sentence]

Jan 11, 10:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9294

OptionProbability

> 0 MPs in the House of Commons.

registered with the Electoral Commission.

polled above 20% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

won >0 General Elections in the past decade.

polled above 30% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the most MPs in the House of Commons.

polled above 40% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

the 2nd most MPs in the House of Commons.

won the previous London Mayoral election

split into multiple electorally-successful parties since 2024.

90

67

67

60

60

58

45

42

34

24

Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Conservative party?

Feb 13, 5:05 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.17%chance

10156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

81

If not Labour, Reform or Conservatives, which party will the UK PM be from after the next election?

Dec 6, 1:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

598

OptionProbability

Green

Liberal Democrats

Other

Your Party

60

28

8

4

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