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Top stories

Reform Party Gains 22 Seats in 78 UK Council By-Elections as Labour Loses 16 and Conservatives Lose 6

Reform Party Gains 22 Seats in 78 UK Council By-Elections as Labour Loses 16 and Conservatives Lose 6

Authors

3

29 days ago

Prediction markets for Conservatives

When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?

Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

336718

OptionProbability

After 2070 (or never)

2036-2040

2029-2035

2061-2065

2041-2045

2046-2050

2066-2070

By 2028

2051-2055

2056-2060

40

18

14

10

5

3

3

2

2

2

Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?

Jul 10, 3:40 PMJul 4, 10:59 PM

24.04%chance

313408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1778

563

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

20.9%chance

153264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1946

514

Will Kemi Badenoch lead the Conservative party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.59%chance

162406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

556

Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?

Jul 31, 2:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

80.23%chance

201955

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2015

496

Who will lead the Conservative Party into the next UK general election?

Oct 14, 5:55 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

221727

OptionProbability

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

Other

James Cleverly

Nigel Farage

39

24

18

17

3

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

33.02%chance

181605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2890

1359

Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

9.25%chance

231486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

912

Will the Conservative Party still exist in 2044?

Jan 18, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.92%chance

171044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

933

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

17783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

949

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?

Dec 12, 11:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.05%chance

11177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

969

Latest stories

Latest stories

Jul 4, 2025
Jul 4, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
Reform Party Gains 22 Seats in 78 UK Council By-Elections as Labour Loses 16 and Conservatives Lose 6
Authors
3
29 days ago

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