Consolidated News

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Dec 8, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

374229893

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Other

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Mark Carney

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Xi Jinping

Elon Musk

Benjamin Netanyahu

Artemis II crew

Jerome Powell

Jensen Huang

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Self Driving Cars (Uber, Waymo, etc.)

[Next FOMC Chair]

Robots (not self driving cars)

The People of Minnesota (and other variations)

Epstein

Jacob Coxan

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

288210499

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Other

Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

Mark Carney

James Talarico

Jon Ossoff

Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

Dario Amodei

Xi Jinping

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Benjamin Netanyahu

AOC

Marco Rubio

Vladimir Putin

Gavin Newsom

Jerome Powell

Sydney Sweeney

Demis Hassabis

Larry Ellison

Jensen Huang

Gen Z

Jeffrey Epstein

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

Nicholas Maduro

Mark Zuckerberg

Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

Lisa Su

Fei-Fei Li

Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

Millenials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Scott Bessent

Sundar Pichai

Narendra Modi

Ursula von der Leyen

Jasmine Crockett

Graham Platner

Kevin Hassett

Gen Alpha

Claudia Sheinbaum

Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

Ahmed al-Sharaa

Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

Bad Bunny

Kevin Warsh

Pete Hegseth

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

52.89%chance

69260

OptionVotes

YES

10595

9438

Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?

Oct 27, 3:29 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3.79%chance

125985

OptionVotes

YES

5041

198

Will the next Republican victory lead to an unprecedented consolidation of power?

Nov 5, 3:49 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

5.74%chance

355339

OptionVotes

YES

1377

943

Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?

Jan 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

5.98%chance

33109

OptionVotes

YES

3964

252

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

1669

510

Bitcoin below 50k before July 2027?

Aug 25, 12:45 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

32.11%chance

181221

OptionVotes

YES

1454

688

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

1100

977

Is the "Game of Thrones" theory of what happened at OpenAI broadly accurate?

Nov 24, 12:08 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.43%chance

18857

OptionVotes

YES

1123

934

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

17.38%chance

18644

OptionVotes

YES

1276

907

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be found guilty in any of the existing bribery/fraud cases?

Oct 24, 4:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

6523

OptionVotes

YES

1319

758

Consolidated News

Prediction markets for Consolidated

Prediction markets for Consolidated

Prediction markets for Consolidated

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the next Republican victory lead to an unprecedented consolidation of power?

Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Bitcoin below 50k before July 2027?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Is the "Game of Thrones" theory of what happened at OpenAI broadly accurate?

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be found guilty in any of the existing bribery/fraud cases?

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