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Prediction markets for Constellation

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

36.15%chance

8331058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

1028

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.35%chance

132254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2943

340

Will Kuiper Project launch 1618 satellites by the end of July 2027?

Jul 26, 10:40 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

15.62%chance

101633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2324

430

How many constellation links will be indexed by Bluesky at the end of 2026?

May 27, 3:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61169

OptionProbability

Above 5,000,000,000

Above 5,500,000,000

Above 6,000,000,000

Above 6,500,000,000

Above 7,000,000,000

Above 7,500,000,000

Above 8,000,000,000

99

98

97

96

95

94

93

Will Apple acquire the Globalstar satellite constellation?

Nov 22, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.81%chance

11546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

162

What payloads will the first paid Rocket Lab Neutron launch carry?

Sep 7, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7486

OptionProbability

Commercial Satellite

Satellite Constellation

Dummy Payload

CubeSat Rideshare

Scientific Satellite

Navigation Satellite

Technology Demonstration Payload

Earth Observation Satellite

Military Cargo

Military Satellite

Space Telescope

32

30

22

22

21

16

16

15

13

11

8

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38.27%chance

18455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

940

Where will I live in February 2027?

Nov 5, 10:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

5356

OptionProbability

Berkeley, CA

Menlo Park, CA

Washington, DC

Other

Stanford, CA

San Francisco, CA

33

19

17

13

9

9

Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ?

Aug 11, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.41%chance

548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

How many active satellites will Rassvet Constellation by Bureau-1440 have by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

125

OptionProbability

Below 50

50 - 99

100 - 149

150 - 199

200 - 249

250 - 300

Above 300

15

15

15

15

15

15

10

Will a major AI alignment office (eg Constellation/Lightcone/HAIST) give out free piksters to alignment ppl by EOY 2027?

Mar 9, 7:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

107

Will quintin Frerichs (nudge) help fund or advise avery Krieger's constellation by eoy2027

Dec 3, 8:28 PMDec 31, 8:27 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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