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Prediction markets for Constellation

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37.88%chance

8028756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

1056

Betelgeuse supernova detected before January 1, 2026

Aug 3, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

1314653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7000

143

What stock currently in the S&P500 will have the most growth in stock price in 2025? (1000M subsidy)

Jan 2, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1011010

OptionProbability

Other

Nvidia (NVDA)

Constellation Energy (CEG)

Apple (AAPL)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Meta Platforms (META)

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)

Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR)

85

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.35%chance

132254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2943

340

How many constellation links will be indexed by Bluesky at the end of 2026?

May 27, 3:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5774

OptionProbability

Above 5,000,000,000

Above 5,500,000,000

Above 6,000,000,000

Above 6,500,000,000

Above 7,000,000,000

Above 7,500,000,000

Above 8,000,000,000

96

94

94

92

92

75

50

Will Apple acquire the Globalstar satellite constellation?

Nov 22, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.44%chance

10496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

222

112

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

935

What payloads will the first paid Rocket Lab Neutron launch carry?

Sep 7, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4406

OptionProbability

CubeSat Rideshare

Commercial Satellite

Dummy Payload

Satellite Constellation

Scientific Satellite

Navigation Satellite

Technology Demonstration Payload

Earth Observation Satellite

Military Satellite

Military Cargo

Space Telescope

31

24

24

22

21

21

21

20

14

13

8

Will the existence of a U.S. government program named "Immaculate Constellation" be confirmed by FOIA before 2026?

Oct 8, 11:20 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

50%chance

6325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Secret Immaculate Constellation Pentagon program revelation causes detention time before 2026?

Apr 30, 3:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.96%chance

7240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

29

Will a major AI alignment office (eg Constellation/Lightcone/HAIST) give out free piksters to alignment ppl by EOY 2027?

Mar 9, 7:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

107

Will quintin Frerichs (nudge) help fund or advise avery Krieger's constellation by eoy2027

Dec 3, 8:28 PMDec 31, 8:27 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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