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Prediction markets for Constellation

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

40.99%chance

8230866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

974

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.35%chance

132254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2943

340

When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?

Jun 11, 8:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51268

OptionProbability

Not before 2037

2031-2032

2029-2030

2033-2034

2035-2036

Before end of 2028

Other

43

16

15

11

8

4

3

How many constellation links will be indexed by Bluesky at the end of 2026?

May 27, 3:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61169

OptionProbability

Above 5,000,000,000

Above 5,500,000,000

Above 6,000,000,000

Above 6,500,000,000

Above 7,000,000,000

Above 7,500,000,000

Above 8,000,000,000

99

98

97

96

95

94

93

Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21)

Apr 21, 4:07 PMOct 21, 4:06 PM

2.26%chance

9816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

658

15

Conditional on a second Wow! signal detection, what will be true?

Mar 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18620

OptionProbability

The signal has natural extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a bandwidth narrower than 10 kHz

The signal has artificial terrestrial origins

Signal has detectable modulation

The signal has a bandwidth wider than 10 kHz

Signal contains an encoded message

The signal has natural terrestrial origins

The signal uses a frequency in the waterhole region (1420 - 1662 MHz)

The signal has a frequency higher than 1662 MHz

Signal is detected by at least 3 different observatories

The signal has artificial extraterrestrial origins

The signal has a frequency lower than 1420 MHz

Signal contains an encoded message that uses the hashtag “#ChasingUFOs”

79

57

52

46

44

44

43

38

35

34

22

16

12

Will Apple acquire the Globalstar satellite constellation?

Nov 22, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.81%chance

11546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

162

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38.27%chance

18455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

940

What payloads will the first paid Rocket Lab Neutron launch carry?

Sep 7, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7420

OptionProbability

Dummy Payload

CubeSat Rideshare

Commercial Satellite

Satellite Constellation

Scientific Satellite

Navigation Satellite

Technology Demonstration Payload

Earth Observation Satellite

Military Satellite

Military Cargo

Space Telescope

32

31

24

22

21

21

21

20

14

13

8

🌌👽🌌 What is ET's star sign? 🌌👽🌌

Mar 3, 5:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4317

OptionProbability

Aries ♈

Gemini ♊

Cancer ♋

Leo ♌

Virgo ♍

Scorpio ♎

Capricorn ♑

Aquarius ♒

Pisces ♓

Taurus ♉

Libra ♎

Sagittarius ♐

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

Will a major AI alignment office (eg Constellation/Lightcone/HAIST) give out free piksters to alignment ppl by EOY 2027?

Mar 9, 7:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

107

Will quintin Frerichs (nudge) help fund or advise avery Krieger's constellation by eoy2027

Dec 3, 8:28 PMDec 31, 8:27 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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