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Prediction markets for Constellation

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37.76%chance

8028754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

1056

What stock currently in the S&P500 will have the most growth in stock price in 2025? (1000M subsidy)

Jan 2, 12:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79779

OptionProbability

Other

Nvidia (NVDA)

Constellation Energy (CEG)

Apple (AAPL)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Meta Platforms (META)

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)

86

4

3

2

2

2

2

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.35%chance

132254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2943

340

Which political parties will be part of the next dutch governing coalition?

Jul 6, 2:50 PMAug 1, 2:40 PM

61804

OptionProbability

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA)

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)

GroenLinks–PvdA

JA21

Democrats 66 (D66)

Christian Union (CU)

Reformed Political Party (SGP)

Volt Netherlands

Party for the Animals (PvdD)

New Social Contract (NSC)

Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB)

Socialist Party (SP)

Party for Freedom (PVV)

Denk

Forum for Democracy (FvD)

81

80

69

46

40

40

40

40

25

18

18

17

12

12

4

How many constellation links will be indexed by Bluesky at the end of 2026?

May 27, 3:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5774

Will Apple acquire the Globalstar satellite constellation?

Nov 22, 3:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.44%chance

10496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

222

112

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

935

Will the existence of a U.S. government program named "Immaculate Constellation" be confirmed by FOIA before 2026?

Oct 8, 11:20 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

56.03%chance

6268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

89

Secret Immaculate Constellation Pentagon program revelation causes detention time before 2026?

Apr 30, 3:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

6100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Which frigate class will Norway purchase to replace its current Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates?

Oct 2, 6:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

153

OptionProbability

British Type 26

French FTI

German F126

Dutch ASWF

'Norwegian' Constellation

Other

58

8

8

8

8

8

How many constellation links will be indexed by Bluesky at the end of 2025?

May 27, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

130

Will a major AI alignment office (eg Constellation/Lightcone/HAIST) give out free piksters to alignment ppl by EOY 2027?

Mar 9, 7:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

107

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