OptionProbability
GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)
Cabinet level current us official visits greenland
Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028
Trump visits greenland
GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)
20+ story building built
Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)
Us has another military base at least 500 personnel
Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now
Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)
Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov
Greenland population falls below 40000
Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200
Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)
Greenland has a military
Greenland significantly changes its flag
Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers
Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it
Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay
USD is the used currency
40+ story building built
81
80
51
49
39
28
25
23
22
21
20
19
14
10
7
OptionVotes
NO
YES
955
257
344
163
147
58
108
77
