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Prediction markets for Construction

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.91%chance

11225182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1618

741

Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?

Jan 13, 12:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.11%chance

1414725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3527

1816

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.71%chance

121255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10481

9520

Will the planned city of Praxis begin construction by 2030?

Sep 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.99%chance

22876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

621

Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100?

Jun 10, 12:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

65.09%chance

18826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

954

Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030?

Mar 24, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

24695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

907

Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

33.2%chance

15533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

959

Will CNSA construct a manned lunar base before 2040?

Sep 23, 2:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

10464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

962

In the year 2100, will construction have begun on a lunar space elevator?

Aug 6, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.88%chance

23451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

944

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

62.04%chance

19362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

954

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.22%chance

13326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

944

Will Holtec submit a construction permit application to the NRC for an SMR-300 before 2026?

Jul 2, 10:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.76%chance

2290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

812

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