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Prediction markets for Construction

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2060?

Aug 7, 6:51 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

65.11%chance

322473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1505

513

Will a tunnel between Finland and Estonia have started construction by 2035?

Jul 5, 9:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

35%chance

381801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

540

Will the planned city of Praxis begin construction by 2030?

Sep 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.86%chance

271699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1320

513

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

40.23%chance

331551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

845

Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100?

Jun 10, 12:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

69.07%chance

21953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

941

Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

32.21%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

989

Will CNSA construct a manned lunar base before 2040?

Sep 23, 2:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

10464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

962

In the year 2100, will construction have begun on a lunar space elevator?

Aug 6, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.88%chance

23451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

944

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

62.04%chance

19362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

954

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.1%chance

15338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

956

Will Rio Tinto or BHP have approved construction of the Resolution Copper mine as of December 31, 2028?

Nov 6, 4:58 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

32.04%chance

229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

935

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