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Prediction markets for Construction

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.61%chance

11225232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1668

729

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

49.05%chance

125331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10411

9587

Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?

Jan 13, 12:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.98%chance

1424876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3576

1812

Will the planned city of Praxis begin construction by 2030?

Sep 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.6%chance

231176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

921

Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100?

Jun 10, 12:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

66.15%chance

18856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

984

Will construction resume on Revolution Wind before September 2026?

Sep 20, 7:22 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

75.8%chance

3770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1770

565

Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030?

Mar 24, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

24695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

907

Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

32.87%chance

16543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

969

Will CNSA construct a manned lunar base before 2040?

Sep 23, 2:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

10464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

962

In the year 2100, will construction have begun on a lunar space elevator?

Aug 6, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.88%chance

23451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

944

By 2030, will an architectural firm design and construct a building based entirely on specifications generated by AI?

May 19, 3:37 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

62.04%chance

19362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

954

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.22%chance

13326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

944

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