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OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War ends in 2025
500+ Iranian civilians killed
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
Israel government dissolves
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Iran launches a cruise missile
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
A second cease-fire is announced
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian government dissolves
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Iran regime change
War Ends in June
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Total casualties exceed 10,000
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
War ends in July
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Qatar attacks Iran
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
92
77
66
64
62
56
49
45
44
42
41
40
38
34
33
33
32
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31
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28
25
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9
9
9
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8
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6
6
6
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5
5
5
5
4
3
1
0
OptionProbability
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days or peace deal is signed)
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Sudanese Civil War ends
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
China invades Taiwan
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
100
100
100
94
87
86
85
85
81
73
72
72
69
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66
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61
61
57
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27
25
25
22
20
19
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16
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12
12
8
8
7
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4
4
1
OptionProbability
Other
Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)
Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)
Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)
Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)
Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)
[Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)
Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)
Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)
Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)
Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)
Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)
Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)
Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)
Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)
Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)
Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)
29
15
12
12
10
10
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1665
531
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1993
894
OptionProbability
AI produces highly-customized forms of entertainment
AI is integrated into IDEs and provides suggestions to programmers
Other
Managers consult AI while making decisions
AI is used for drug discovery
AI designs hardware for industrial processes
AI is integrated into compilers and makes code run faster
AI chatbots provide mental health support, boosting productivity
37
22
22
11
5
2
1
0
OptionProbability
Defence spending amounts to 2% or more of GDP by the end of the cabinet period.
The maximum speed on one or more highways has been increased to 130 km/h.
The national debt remains below 60% of GDP throughout the entire cabinet period.
The standard term for naturalization has been extended to 10 years.
The independence of the Electoral Council will be strengthened and its mandate expanded to an Electoral Authority.
The growth in the number of civil servants and the use of consultants in (core) departments in recent years will be more than reversed.
The average EMU balance over the cabinet period is 2.8% of GDP or lower.
Red diesel is again available for farmers, horticulturists, and agricultural contractors.
A legal maximum has been set for the increase in municipal housing tax (property tax, either in legislation or an agreement with the municipalities).
A statutory regulation will be introduced for independent inspectorates, supervisory bodies, and authorities, including their method of enforcement (law on national inspectorates and authorities).
A constitutional amendment to abolish the ban on constitutional review in Article 120 will be submitted.
A constitutional amendment to introduce a constitutional court that reviews laws against the Constitution will be submitted.
The healthcare deductible is 165 euros or lower in 2027.
New legislation has been implemented that demonstrably tightens asylum policy.
At least 66% of new housing is affordable for middle-income households.
At least 30% of new housing is social housing.
A bill will be introduced, creating a new electoral system for the House of Representatives
The legal minimum age for prostitution has been raised to 21 years.
An average of 100,000 or more homes are built per year during the cabinet period.
The Netherlands is in the top 5 countries with the best competitive position at the end of the cabinet period.
99
99
94
57
50
50
48
38
31
31
30
29
23
21
10
9
9
8
4
3
OptionVotes
NO
YES
993
986
OptionVotes
NO
YES
193
97
OptionVotes
YES
NO
107
66
OptionProbability
Economy: This was a ZIRP and I can't justify my fees in a tighter environment
Skills: I fail to stay relevant
Skills: The logistical overhead (including taxes, LLC stuff, etc) becomes overwhelming
AI: Supply/demand shifts such that I can't justify my fees
Legal: I get sued and net less than $10k after legal fees and/or penalty
Health: I get a chronic illness
Health: I get an acute injury
Health: I get a workplace injury (RSI or similar)
13
13
13
13
13
11
11
11