Consumer Apps News

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.01%chance

285333

OptionVotes

YES

1356

824

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.64%chance

354321

OptionVotes

YES

2290

1775

Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMJul 31, 10:00 PM

99%chance

81161

OptionVotes

YES

1235

Will any practical applications of quantum computing be commercially available to retail consumers before end of 2026?

Dec 15, 4:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4.93%chance

9471

OptionVotes

YES

439

Will any AI investing agent have at least 1 million publicly verifiable monthly active users by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.34%chance

4354

OptionVotes

YES

1055

948

Will Apple announce a robotic lamp with the intention to release to consumers by EOY 2026?

Feb 21, 10:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.71%chance

7343

OptionVotes

YES

406

By EOY 2030, what will happen with Google/UCSD’s retired-phone low-carbon computing project?

Jun 13, 3:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2215

OptionProbability

At least 1,000 phones are documented as deployed

A preprint or public technical paper is published

A peer-reviewed paper is published

At least 1 million phones are documented as deployed

At least 100 non-Pixel Android phones are documented as deployed

At least 100 HarmonyOS / Huawei phones are documented as deployed

The Google blog post is the last substantive public update

At least 100 iPhones are documented as deployed

At least 1 billion phones are documented as deployed

At least 100 other smartphone platform phones are documented as deployed

Prediction markets are the hype cycle of 2026

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.44%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

159

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

Feb 20, 12:39 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.81%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

122

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Apr 23, 9:38 PM

Consumer Apps News

Prediction markets for Consumer Apps

Prediction markets for Consumer Apps

Prediction markets for Consumer Apps

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?

Will any practical applications of quantum computing be commercially available to retail consumers before end of 2026?

Will any AI investing agent have at least 1 million publicly verifiable monthly active users by the end of 2027?

Will Apple announce a robotic lamp with the intention to release to consumers by EOY 2026?

By EOY 2030, what will happen with Google/UCSD’s retired-phone low-carbon computing project?

Prediction markets are the hype cycle of 2026

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

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