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Prediction markets for Consumer Apps

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.12%chance

233116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3094

1404

Will I get into a "top" university for CS in US?

May 19, 5:30 AMMay 2, 5:12 AM

11652

OptionProbability

Yes

No

82

18

Will any practical applications of quantum computing be commercially available to retail consumers before end of 2026?

Dec 15, 4:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4.93%chance

9471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439

23

Will Apple announce a robotic lamp with the intention to release to consumers by EOY 2026?

Feb 21, 10:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.71%chance

7343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

406

25

Prediction markets are the hype cycle of 2026

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.44%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

Feb 20, 12:39 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.81%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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Apr 23, 9:38 PM

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