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Consumer Bureau News

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMJan 12, 11:59 PM

68.46%chance

13625322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1474

679

Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?

Dec 17, 4:02 AMJul 5, 3:59 AM

5013644

OptionProbability

Department of Education

Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Park Service (NPS)

Freddie Mac

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)

Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco

Fannie Mae

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

Small Business Administration

Federal Statistical Agencies

Ginnie Mae

Federal Bureau of Investigations

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Transportation Security Administration (TSA)

National Weather Service

Internal Revenue Service

National Institutes of Health

The Supreme Court

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

US Postal Service

Amtrak

100

14

12

11

10

10

10

9

9

9

8

8

8

7

7

7

6

5

5

4

4

1

1

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

36.43%chance

343356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

809

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.49%chance

562454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1705

712

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

151490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Will US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceed 4.0%?

Jun 5, 4:22 PMJul 18, 11:59 PM

75%chance

12537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

49

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 4% before it reaches 2%?

Apr 7, 6:36 AMDec 31, 7:28 AM

76%chance

11121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

56

Will US CPI inflation (12-month) for June 2026 be 4.5% or higher?

Jun 21, 12:49 PMJul 14, 12:30 PM

20.62%chance

593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

60

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

Average inflation-adjusted return of Vanguard Total World Stock ETF over the next 70 years (2025-2095)?

Jul 14, 10:39 AMJan 9, 6:59 AM

12

OptionProbability

Less than 1.0%

1.0% up to less than 1.5%

1.5% up to less than 2.0%

2.0% up to less than 2.5%

2.5% up to less than 3.0%

3.0% up to less than 3.5%

3.5% up to less than 4.0%

4.0% up to less than 4.5%

4.5% up to less than 5.0%

5.0% up to less than 5.5%

5.5% up to less than 6.0%

6.0% up to less than 6.5%

6.5% up to less than 7.0%

7.0% up to less than 7.5%

7.5% up to less than 8.0%

8.0% or greater

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

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