Consumer Goods News

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM

32.3%chance

2415943

OptionVotes

YES

14478

6907

Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

Dec 13, 1:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.03%chance

4214355

OptionVotes

YES

3608

700

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

Jul 13, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

173565

OptionVotes

YES

2000

500

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025?

Feb 11, 6:37 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

8.64%chance

121697

OptionVotes

YES

1431

245

Amazon displays tariff costs on product pages in 2025?

May 6, 3:12 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

6.7%chance

18494

OptionVotes

YES

373

What will be the second cell cultured meat species to be approved by the USDA

Aug 5, 3:07 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

7399

OptionProbability

Pork

Seafood

Beef

Lamb

Duck

Other

In 2038, will a movie be able to generate a high-quality AI to a prompt?

Mar 31, 7:34 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

70%chance

12284

OptionVotes

YES

174

Will the metaverse become a mainstream social platform by 2030?

Aug 3, 12:15 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

20.05%chance

8236

OptionVotes

YES

182

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

YES

1212

825

Does trump have any clue what he’s doing with his trade war ?

Apr 13, 5:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15228

OptionProbability

Trump understands some aspects but misunderstands the broader economic consequences

No, Trump is acting impulsively without understanding the economic implications

Trump is following advisors' strategies rather than his own understanding

Trump is deliberately creating uncertainty as a negotiation tactic

Yes

Yes, Trump has a clear strategy and understanding of his trade war goals

Trump understands the political benefits but not the economic impacts

Trump's understanding is evolving as the trade war progresses

Other

In what year will the United States require warning labels on supplements with vitamin B6 about the risk of neuropathy?

Jun 20, 1:07 AMDec 27, 6:59 AM

4225

OptionProbability

2025

Other/Never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2024

Will there be evidence by 2030 that human selection on farmed mushrooms alters our gut microbiome?

May 11, 9:26 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

36.27%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

108

Consumer Goods News

Prediction markets for Consumer Goods

Prediction markets for Consumer Goods

Prediction markets for Consumer Goods

Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?

Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025?

Amazon displays tariff costs on product pages in 2025?

What will be the second cell cultured meat species to be approved by the USDA

In 2038, will a movie be able to generate a high-quality AI to a prompt?

Will the metaverse become a mainstream social platform by 2030?

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

Does trump have any clue what he’s doing with his trade war ?

In what year will the United States require warning labels on supplements with vitamin B6 about the risk of neuropathy?

Will there be evidence by 2030 that human selection on farmed mushrooms alters our gut microbiome?

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