Consumer News News

129

1 year ago

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.09%chance

7713190

OptionVotes

YES

5918

1919

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.82%chance

9412544

OptionVotes

YES

12271

8388

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

Jul 13, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

349975

OptionVotes

YES

2000

500

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.6%chance

275531

OptionVotes

YES

3264

307

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

425357

OptionProbability

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Pen

Earbuds

Other

AR/VR Goggles

Phone

Watch

Wearable badge

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.01%chance

285333

OptionVotes

YES

1356

824

Aliens kill at least one human before 2035

Jul 22, 6:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

7.78%chance

261513

OptionVotes

YES

982

806

What major event will precipitate the next run on toilet paper in the United States?

Jul 17, 12:14 AMJul 17, 12:13 AM

10731

OptionProbability

Other

A new global pandemic

A major natural disaster affecting multiple states

A severe economic recession leading to panic buying

A recall of contaminated toilet paper products

Significant disruptions in the supply chain due to geopolitical conflicts

A cyberattack disrupting logistics and distribution networks

A widespread power grid failure

A major political event causing widespread uncertainty

A prolonged labor strike in the paper manufacturing industry

Government-imposed lockdowns or curfews

A sudden surge in population due to mass migration

A major transportation strike affecting goods delivery

A significant increase in raw material costs for paper production

A viral social media trend promoting toilet paper stockpiling

A major fire or accident at a key toilet paper manufacturing plant

A new tax or tariff on imported paper goods

A significant increase in toilet paper exports reducing domestic supply

A disruption in water supply leading to increased toilet paper usage

A significant technological failure in manufacturing equipment

A sudden change in consumer behavior due to health advisories

volcano eruption

Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

Nov 12, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.19%chance

381

OptionVotes

YES

161

When will FDVR be released to the public?

May 27, 4:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

371

OptionProbability

2035-2040

2030-2035

Other

2025-2030

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

Who Hasbro buys Sanrio on 2030 only

Feb 10, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.22%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

140

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Prediction markets for Consumer News

Prediction markets for Consumer News

Prediction markets for Consumer News

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Will Russia experience widespread queues for basic goods in at least 3 major cities in 2025 or 2026?

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Aliens kill at least one human before 2035

What major event will precipitate the next run on toilet paper in the United States?

Mustafa Suleyman out of Microsoft by EOY 2028?

When will FDVR be released to the public?

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Who Hasbro buys Sanrio on 2030 only

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