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Prediction markets for Consumer Price Index

Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?

Oct 4, 2:45 PMFeb 13, 1:59 PM

86.24%chance

739108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2504

399

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMJan 12, 11:59 PM

38.39%chance

947396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

790

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

30.35%chance

333266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

979

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.55%chance

532215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1470

776

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Next month's trailing 12-month CPI above 2.8%?

Jan 13, 1:38 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

11%chance

71027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

48.91%chance

4475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

978

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

1087

Will the average US inflation between 2024–2034 be more than 2.21%?

Mar 22, 9:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

59.46%chance

755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

234

172

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

Feb 7, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

(NO) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (<-10%)

(YES) x (>=20%)

(NO) x (<-10%)

(NO) x (>=20%)

29

25

12

12

12

12

Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMOct 10, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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