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Prediction markets for Consumer Price Index

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMJan 12, 11:59 PM

69.88%chance

13625372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1524

657

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

36.43%chance

343356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

809

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.49%chance

562454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1705

712

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

151490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in August?

May 16, 5:48 AMAug 4, 11:59 PM

61396

OptionProbability

No change

Increase

Decrease

56

39

6

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

43.49%chance

7593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

877

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

1087

Will AI technology lead to higher or lower US inflation rates by end of June 2027

Feb 9, 5:31 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

5255

OptionProbability

Moderately higher inflation (2.1%-3.0%)

Significantly higher inflation (>3.0%)

Significantly lower inflation (<1.5%)

Moderately lower inflation (1.5%-1.9%)

Minimal impact on inflation (2% or no mention of AI in Fed comms)

37

20

15

14

14

Will US CPI inflation (12-month) for June 2026 be 4.5% or higher?

Jun 21, 12:49 PMJul 14, 12:30 PM

16.23%chance

6126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

52

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMOct 10, 6:59 AM

49.5%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

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