Consumer Products News

YES

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

No humans on the moon since Apollo

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

True Detective Season 5 released

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

Xi still leader of China

Putin still leader of Russia

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Charles still King of UK

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

Family Guy has ended

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Taylor Swift has been married

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

1200 or more official pokemon

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

Taylor Swift has been divorced

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

China has landed a human on the moon

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

YES

YES

nuclear powered transportation vehicle

PC with quantum computing capability

CPU with stock frequency 8GHz or above

Betavoltaic battery (Nuclear battery)

Neuralink-like implant (brain-computer-interface)

Solid State Battery EV

3.5/2.5 inch or M.2 form factor HDD or SSD with at least 1PB (petabyte) capacity

Grand Theft Auto 7

CPU with 200 or more physical cores

Fully offline LLM with performance exceeding the best existing GPT-4 variant

YES

YES

NO

IPO actually happens in 2025

IPO actually happens in 2026

At end of first day trading, valuation >10b

At end of first day trading, valuation >50b

Has over 1000 employees at IPO time.

Out of business by mid 2027

Is purchased by another company by mid 2028

Officially confirmed that their chips are used by OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepSeek, with a value of at least 100m USD, by mid 2028

+2 years from IPO, valuation is >100b

+3 years from IPO, the CEO is still in place (from IPO time)

The CEO Andrew Feldman has a wikipedia page active on the IPO day

IPO actually happens in 2027

Any of their CEOs visits the Qhite House, til mid 2027, media proof required*

Cerebras sells a consumer product, <10k usd, in US by mid 2027

Midjourney v7

A public API

A publicly available video model

A publicly available game

YES

YES