Consumer Reports News

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51%chance

322116747

OptionVotes

YES

991

984

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.88%chance

4411762

OptionVotes

YES

1497

669

100GW AI training run before 2031?

Jun 10, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.48%chance

165462

OptionVotes

YES

1442

694

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

Mar 21, 12:20 AMAug 1, 12:10 AM

47.39%chance

43782

OptionVotes

YES

1054

949

Will the WA SWIS annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 90 AUD per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

25.33%chance

53536

OptionVotes

YES

13504

8507

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Jan 6, 2:38 AMJan 31, 4:59 AM

75.08%chance

132780

OptionVotes

YES

1736

576

Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

27.69%chance

42511

OptionVotes

YES

12479

8876

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

141561

OptionProbability

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-related cyberattack

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?

May 16, 12:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.64%chance

15370

OptionVotes

YES

1070

973

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030?

Jun 9, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.6%chance

7295

OptionVotes

YES

241

Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?

Jan 28, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.98%chance

12175

OptionVotes

YES

1108

945

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040?

Jun 9, 5:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.8%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

156

Consumer Reports News

Prediction markets for Consumer Reports

Prediction markets for Consumer Reports

Prediction markets for Consumer Reports

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

100GW AI training run before 2031?

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

Will the WA SWIS annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 90 AUD per MWh?

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030?

Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040?

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