Consumer Reports News

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.87%chance

322116454

OptionVotes

YES

1186

815

100GW AI training run before 2031?

Jun 10, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.94%chance

155447

OptionVotes

YES

1427

701

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

Mar 21, 12:20 AMAug 1, 12:10 AM

47.39%chance

43782

OptionVotes

YES

1054

949

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

121409

OptionProbability

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

AI-related cyberattack

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

56.41%chance

181372

OptionVotes

YES

1318

626

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Jan 6, 2:38 AMJan 31, 4:59 AM

74.18%chance

111174

OptionVotes

YES

1695

590

Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

33.38%chance

3511

OptionVotes

YES

10479

9751

Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

33.38%chance

3511

OptionVotes

YES

10479

9751

Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?

May 16, 12:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.64%chance

15370

OptionVotes

YES

1070

973

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030?

Jun 9, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.6%chance

7295

OptionVotes

YES

241

Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?

Jan 28, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.98%chance

12175

OptionVotes

YES

1108

945

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040?

Jun 9, 5:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.8%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

156

Consumer Reports News

Prediction markets for Consumer Reports

Prediction markets for Consumer Reports

Prediction markets for Consumer Reports

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

100GW AI training run before 2031?

Will the solid-state (Donut) Verge motorcycle be delivered under a non-disclosure agreement?

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?

Will WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?

Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?

Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030?

Will at least 1 in 6 of US adults (21+) binge alcohol in an average month in 2030?

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040?

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