Continuing Operations News

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1117551

OptionProbability

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

Sun Country

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

529185

OptionVotes

YES

1364

734

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.24%chance

243861

OptionVotes

YES

1089

919

Will we get fusion drives before 2040?

Jun 2, 5:19 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

23.7%chance

152898

OptionVotes

YES

1794

557

Waymo handles Denver snow?

Sep 6, 1:39 PMApr 1, 1:28 PM

34.25%chance

371955

OptionVotes

YES

1386

722

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

1098

911

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Oct 27, 3:30 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.43%chance

6662

OptionVotes

YES

1662

602

Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status

Feb 18, 7:31 PMMay 9, 6:59 AM

25.54%chance

16574

OptionVotes

YES

1300

868

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.15%chance

3500

OptionVotes

YES

1358

736

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.24%chance

9400

OptionVotes

YES

1370

730

Disney vs Midjourney lawsuit

Jun 22, 12:18 PMJan 1, 11:53 AM

6270

OptionProbability

Lawsuit over before 2029

Lawsuit is settled out of court

Midjourney implements content filters to prevent copyright infringement²

Lawsuit over before 2028

Midjorney pays Disney and/or Universal⁴

Midjourney appeals the court's decision

Midjourney continues operations without changes at the end³

Lawsuit over before 2027

Midjourney agrees to licensing terms with Disney and/or Universal

Midjourney no longer provides image generation by the end of it¹

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Dec 11, 11:22 PMMay 4, 10:11 PM

437

OptionProbability

the exchange fee will be removed for euro-euro conversions , but without refunding victims

NO, Prague is EU capital and charging exchange rates for Euro to Euro conversions isn't legal - we will learn about the fines ot court orders or other punishments

YES, it's fully legal - no consequences for ATM owners

exchange fee from Euro to Euro is gray area and companies can operate if they have good lawyers - the issue will be settled, and ATM continue operate as is

Other

Continuing Operations News

Prediction markets for Continuing Operations

Prediction markets for Continuing Operations

Prediction markets for Continuing Operations

Next airline to default

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Will we get fusion drives before 2040?

Waymo handles Denver snow?

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Disney vs Midjourney lawsuit

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

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