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Prediction markets for Contrary

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.62%chance

13311375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2266

1908

EIA Projection for U.S. ICE market share in 2026?

Aug 13, 7:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39970

OptionProbability

75.8 - 77.79 %

74 - 75.79 %

77.8 - 79.99 %

71 - 73.99 %

80 - 82.99 %

Other

28

25

23

13

6

5

Did Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)

Jul 25, 1:00 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

34.77%chance

504124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

240

Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.54%chance

713494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1402

1054

Barron Trump gets a Girlfriend (or SO) by 2027

Mar 20, 6:04 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.25%chance

191600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

703

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM

36.12%chance

71161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3991

2255

If elected, will President Trump succeed in jailing his opponents?

Oct 27, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.35%chance

21889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

789

Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2029?

Oct 4, 10:50 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

81.85%chance

16754

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1559

816

Will the Variability Hypothesis be confirmed within humans before 2035?

Jan 25, 6:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.02%chance

6720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Kai Trump gets a Boyfriend (or SO) by 2027

Mar 20, 6:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.19%chance

5556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

Is supersymmetry realized in nature?

Aug 31, 4:32 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

22.11%chance

16510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

901

By 2030, will any Democratic administration succeed in jailing their opponents?

Nov 8, 12:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.5%chance

3458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

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