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Prediction markets for Contrary

Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026

Mar 10, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.55%chance

6329100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5209

192

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.08%chance

13411475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2366

1862

Did Donald Trump have sex with a minor (underage)? (Sworn court testimony or similar, by 2028-01-01.)

Jul 25, 1:00 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

35.12%chance

524200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

237

Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.54%chance

713494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1402

1054

Barron Trump gets a Girlfriend (or SO) by 2027

Mar 20, 6:04 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.96%chance

191731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1314

773

Is the cognitive core hypothesis true? Will it be clear next year?

Dec 7, 7:06 PMDec 8, 6:39 PM

36.06%chance

81166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3996

2252

If elected, will President Trump succeed in jailing his opponents?

Oct 27, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.35%chance

21889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

789

Kai Trump gets a Boyfriend (or SO) by 2027

Mar 20, 6:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49%chance

9799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will the Variability Hypothesis be confirmed within humans before 2035?

Jan 25, 6:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.02%chance

6720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Is supersymmetry realized in nature?

Aug 31, 4:32 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

22.11%chance

16510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

901

By 2030, will any Democratic administration succeed in jailing their opponents?

Nov 8, 12:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.5%chance

3458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

Will the Euro overtake gold as a global reserve asset by the end of June 2028?

Mar 9, 1:49 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

22.69%chance

13386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

872

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