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Prediction markets for Conviction

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026?

Dec 9, 8:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.54%chance

319154978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5220

192

Elon Musk convicted of a felony before 2026

Oct 5, 11:50 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

1.24%chance

12742155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19372

933

Cluely founders convicted of crime before 2028?

May 28, 2:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

1312567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?

Mar 3, 10:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.09%chance

515787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1772

308

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?

Jan 18, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.66%chance

394184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1763

567

Will a Hylion executive be convicted of fraud before 2030?

Jul 16, 2:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.35%chance

23973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9982

9977

D4vd convicted of crimes related to Celeste Rivas?

Sep 19, 6:25 PMDec 19, 7:18 PM

81.36%chance

142428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1797

173

If Trump is convicted, will he be pardoned? (2028)

Sep 2, 10:05 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

40.86%chance

261464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

784

Will an AI be convicted of a crime in a US court by 2050?

Apr 5, 1:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.8%chance

17359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

926

Will Lil Nas X (Montero Lamar Hill) be convicted on any of his August 2025 charges?

Aug 26, 12:50 PMApr 13, 10:59 PM

59.33%chance

5287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

828

Will anyone associated with Helion be convicted of defrauding Helion investors by 2043?

May 16, 11:19 PMMay 18, 6:59 AM

15.14%chance

11234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

954

Will Duterte be convicted by the ICC before 2030?

Dec 3, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.67%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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