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Prediction markets for Conviction

Cluely founders convicted of crime before 2028?

May 28, 2:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

1312567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?

Jan 18, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.55%chance

477446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

555

Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?

Mar 3, 10:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.56%chance

526037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2022

240

Will a Hylion executive be convicted of fraud before 2030?

Jul 16, 2:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.56%chance

34973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10982

9353

D4vd convicted of crimes related to Celeste Rivas?

Sep 19, 6:25 PMDec 19, 7:18 PM

81.36%chance

142428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1797

173

If Trump is convicted, will he be pardoned? (2028)

Sep 2, 10:05 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

40.04%chance

261476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

802

Will Karmelo Anthony be convicted of first-degree murder for the killing of Austin Metcalf?

Apr 18, 11:18 PMJun 2, 12:59 AM

67.55%chance

131356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1443

693

Will any member of Trump's cabinet be convicted of a war crime by end 2040?

Dec 10, 2:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.58%chance

6672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

911

Will an AI be convicted of a crime in a US court by 2050?

Apr 5, 1:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.87%chance

17362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1132

927

Will Lil Nas X (Montero Lamar Hill) be convicted on any of his August 2025 charges?

Aug 26, 12:50 PMApr 13, 10:59 PM

59.33%chance

5287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

481

101

Will anyone associated with Helion be convicted of defrauding Helion investors by 2043?

May 16, 11:19 PMMay 18, 6:59 AM

15.14%chance

11234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

954

Will Duterte be convicted by the ICC before 2030?

Dec 3, 3:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.67%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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