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Prediction markets for Convin

By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?

Mar 4, 2:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.89%chance

361613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

963

When will we be able to chat with an AI convincingly impersonating a famous historical or living person?

Feb 5, 10:08 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

241459

OptionProbability

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

53

45

33

0

0

It is more likely that the Moon is made of Parmesan cheese than Gouda cheese [Convince the Machine #17]

Jun 23, 8:34 AMJul 7, 8:34 AM

58.96%chance

7987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will GPT5 help produce a convincing solution to the "Taiwan issue" acceptable to all sides?

Mar 24, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.03%chance

19952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

933

Will I be convinced that seed oils are super bad for you by 2027?

Nov 1, 7:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.74%chance

21899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

554

92

Will I be convinced that an X user was banned from X for using Birdclaw in 2026?

Jun 22, 3:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.13%chance

6726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

579

Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?

Apr 24, 7:14 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.61%chance

30708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

946

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing video of a gay orgy (#LemonParty) of the entire Paypal Mafia by 2026?

Jan 1, 7:45 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

33.36%chance

12387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

920

It is more likely that Islam is true than Christianity [Convince the Machine #18]

Jun 23, 8:34 AMJul 7, 8:34 AM

35%chance

8160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will Tumbles become convinced that local realism is false before 2027? (quantum physics)

Jan 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 12:20 PM

73.77%chance

487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

93

Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine?

May 17, 1:08 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.21%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Convincing replica of Microsoft Tay by EOY 2027

Feb 6, 10:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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