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Prediction markets for Convin

By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?

Mar 4, 2:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.89%chance

361613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

963

When will we be able to chat with an AI convincingly impersonating a famous historical or living person?

Feb 5, 10:08 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

241238

OptionProbability

In 2028 or earlier

In 2027 or earlier

In 2026 or earlier

In 2024

In 2025 or earlier

58

52

49

0

0

Will GPT5 help produce a convincing solution to the "Taiwan issue" acceptable to all sides?

Mar 24, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.03%chance

19952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

933

Will I be convinced that seed oils are super bad for you by 2027?

Nov 1, 7:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.91%chance

18702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

1117

Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?

Apr 24, 7:14 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.07%chance

29658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1197

952

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing video of a gay orgy (#LemonParty) of the entire Paypal Mafia by 2026?

Jan 1, 7:45 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

33.36%chance

12387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

920

Will I no longer identify as a libertarian or neoliberal as a result of an AI convincing me by 2030?

Mar 26, 9:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30%chance

781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

153

Will RFK go after sucralose by EOY2028? (the same way he convinced food manufacturers to drop artificial dyes)

Apr 23, 8:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.19%chance

653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will a large language model (or AI) successfully convince someone to take amphetamine (off-label, not for ADHD) by 2035?

Apr 8, 11:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.75%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

82

Convincing replica of Microsoft Tay by EOY 2027

Feb 6, 10:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

Convincing YouTube video of Laurence ion and Dan dascalescu dancing to the numa numa song by EOY 2028

Jul 4, 10:16 PMJul 12, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Someone provides a convincing response to "why does everyone love Jose Luis Ricon" here by EOY 2026

Aug 9, 5:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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