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Prediction markets for Convin

By 2029 will an AI convince a human to help it (successfully) escape containment?

Mar 4, 2:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.89%chance

361613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

963

Will GPT5 help produce a convincing solution to the "Taiwan issue" acceptable to all sides?

Mar 24, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.83%chance

19986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

930

Will I be convinced that an X user was banned from X for using Birdclaw in 2026?

Jun 22, 3:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.02%chance

6731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1731

578

Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?

Apr 24, 7:14 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.61%chance

30708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

946

will there be vending machines that use LLMs to try to convince passers-by to buy stuff before 2028?

Apr 10, 11:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

24.56%chance

25617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

359

102

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing video of a gay orgy (#LemonParty) of the entire Paypal Mafia by 2026?

Jan 1, 7:45 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

33.36%chance

12387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

920

Researchers become more convinced that allopregnanolone is an important regulator of brain anxiety states (at least as important as serotonin)

Mar 8, 9:39 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

53.75%chance

7152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

111

Will Tumbles become convinced that local realism is false before 2027? (quantum physics)

Jan 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 12:20 PM

73.77%chance

487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

93

Will AGI/ASI convince (most) humans to be happier with less?

Feb 12, 6:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.26%chance

567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will RFK go after sucralose by EOY2028? (the same way he convinced food manufacturers to drop artificial dyes)

Apr 23, 8:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.19%chance

653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Convincing video of Jose Luis ricon dancing with Rochelle Shen by EOY 2026

Jan 22, 10:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Convincing replica of Microsoft Tay by EOY 2027

Feb 6, 10:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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