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Prediction markets for COOP

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

55.4%chance

235695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2181

1841

Will Roy Cooper run for and be elected Senator for North Carolina in 2026?

Feb 21, 5:15 PMNov 11, 4:59 AM

78.04%chance

114536

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2533

830

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?

Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM

7771

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035 or later/never

2025

37

25

12

9

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.63%chance

21670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

840

Will the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) exist at EOY 2025?

Nov 18, 6:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

95.36%chance

7356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

453

22

[Metaculus] Will US law continue to prohibit NASA cooperation with the Chinese government until 2030?

Oct 12, 10:13 PMFeb 1, 3:00 AM

92.63%chance

5238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

367

80

Cooper Flagg youngest NBA player to record a triple double?

Jun 28, 1:02 AMMar 16, 12:58 AM

63.91%chance

7196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

THE COOP

Nov 19, 5:54 PMDec 19, 11:59 PM

58%chance

9153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

160

Will "Towards more cooperative AI safety strategies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 8:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.66%chance

3103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

789

Will the Columbae coop at Stanford survive into 2032?

Nov 9, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Suggest me some couch coop games to play with my partner. Bounty to the best games we haven’t played yet.

Mar 5, 11:09 PM

00

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