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Prediction markets for Cooper

Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?

Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

52.71%chance

245795

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

1941

Will Roy Cooper run for and be elected Senator for North Carolina in 2026?

Feb 21, 5:15 PMNov 11, 4:59 AM

78.04%chance

114536

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2533

830

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.98%chance

161313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

921

AI beats Portal 2 Cooperative mode with a human (or itself) by what date?

Jul 19, 6:17 PMDec 31, 6:10 PM

7771

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035 or later/never

2025

37

25

12

9

3

3

3

3

3

2

1

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.63%chance

21670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

840

[Metaculus] Will US law continue to prohibit NASA cooperation with the Chinese government until 2030?

Oct 12, 10:13 PMFeb 1, 3:00 AM

92.63%chance

5238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

367

80

Cooper Flagg youngest NBA player to record a triple double?

Jun 28, 1:02 AMMar 16, 12:58 AM

63.91%chance

7196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

What will be the first for-profit cooperation to join manifold?

Apr 4, 8:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5115

OptionProbability

Other

Reddit

Twitter

Twitch

Meta

Google

Discord

90

4

2

2

1

1

0

Will "Towards more cooperative AI safety strategies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 8:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.66%chance

3103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

789

Cooper Lutkenhaus's step count in World Record 800m race if he breaks WR by 2030?

Aug 21, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

196

OptionProbability

At least 350 steps

At least 355 steps

At least 360 steps

At least 365 steps

48

28

20

15

Will Roy Cooper win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election?

Jul 1, 12:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.88%chance

590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

55

Will Saudi Arabia join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by the end of 2030?

Jul 5, 2:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

53.53%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

92

87

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